Sutton Utd 1-1 Tranmere – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sutton Utd at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sutton Utd face Tranmere.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sutton Utd and Tranmere meet at VBS Community Stadium in League Two (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sutton Utd's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sutton Utd's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Tranmere have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Tranmere have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Sutton Utd against 1.00 for Tranmere. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Sutton Utd, 1 for Tranmere and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2023, ended Sutton Utd 2–2 Tranmere — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sutton Utd — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Tranmere — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sutton Utd 52% versus Tranmere 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sutton Utd 49% | Tranmere 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 1.68 xG and Tranmere 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 0.960 / defence 1.078 | Tranmere attack 0.638 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.285. Tranmere's attack rating of 0.638 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Sutton Utd's last 63 games and Tranmere's last 63.
Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 56% | Draw 24% | Tranmere 20%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 1.78 | Draw 4.14 | Tranmere 5.09. The model has a clear lean to Sutton Utd (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sutton Utd are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sutton Utd 50% (last 10 home games) | Tranmere 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Tranmere | Competition: League Two, matchday 18 | Venue: VBS Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sutton Utd 56% | Draw 24% | Tranmere 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Sutton Utd 1.68 / Tranmere 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sutton Utd attack 0.960 / def 1.078 | Tranmere attack 0.638 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Sutton Utd (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Sutton Utd xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Tranmere xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sutton Utd vs Tranmere FAQs
What time does Sutton Utd vs Tranmere kick off?
Sutton Utd vs Tranmere kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 18 November 2023 at VBS Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Sutton Utd vs Tranmere?
Sutton Utd 1 - 1 Tranmere.
Where is Sutton Utd vs Tranmere being played?
The match is being played at VBS Community Stadium.
What competition is Sutton Utd vs Tranmere part of?
Sutton Utd vs Tranmere is a League Two fixture (matchday 18) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sutton Utd vs Tranmere?
Our statistical model gives Sutton Utd a 56% chance of winning, Tranmere a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sutton Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Tranmere?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sutton Utd and Tranmere will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Sutton Utd vs Tranmere have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sutton Utd's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Tranmere's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Tranmere's attack (0.64x) against Sutton Utd's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Sutton Utd's last 63 games and Tranmere's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sutton Utd Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.14
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Sutton Utd xG
Total xG
2.56
0.88
Tranmere xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
27.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sutton Utd vs Tranmere Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sutton Utd vs Tranmere?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sutton Utd and Tranmere expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 0.88 for Tranmere, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Sutton Utd vs Tranmere?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Sutton Utd have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 18W 15D 30L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Tranmere's form line: 19W 14D 30L from 63 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Sutton Utd against 1.13 for Tranmere. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sutton Utd have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 31 home games (14W 5D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Sutton Utd are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tranmere have gone 5W 7D 19L from their last 31 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Tranmere's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sutton Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sutton Utd are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Tranmere are on 1.05 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sutton Utd
Blended
Tranmere
Blended
Sutton Utd (Home) vs Tranmere (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sutton Utd
Blended
Tranmere
Blended
❓ Sutton Utd vs Tranmere Form FAQs
What form are Sutton Utd and Tranmere in coming into this match?
Sutton Utd have gone 18W 15D 30L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while Tranmere have gone 19W 14D 30L in their last 63 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sutton Utd at home or Tranmere away?
Sutton Utd's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sutton Utd at home: 1.52 PPG; Tranmere away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Sutton Utd or Tranmere been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Tranmere in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Sutton Utd and Tranmere, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sutton Utd have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Tranmere — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sutton Utd
3
Draws
2
Tranmere
Recent Meetings
❓ Sutton Utd vs Tranmere H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Tranmere?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sutton Utd have won 1, Tranmere have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sutton Utd and Tranmere last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2024: Tranmere 1-0 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Sutton Utd and Tranmere?
Tranmere have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sutton Utd 45%, Tranmere 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sutton Utd) and 29% (Tranmere).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd have failed to score in 32% of games; Tranmere in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sutton Utd home games / Tranmere away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sutton Utd vs Tranmere Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sutton Utd and Tranmere matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sutton Utd's recent matches and 42% of Tranmere's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sutton Utd and Tranmere matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sutton Utd's recent games and 29% of Tranmere's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sutton Utd and Tranmere matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Sutton Utd's recent matches and 74% of Tranmere's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sutton Utd and Tranmere share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd and Tranmere finished level at 1-1 at VBS Community Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sutton Utd 1.68 xG and Tranmere 0.88 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sutton Utd attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Tranmere attack 0.64 / defence 1.16, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sutton Utd 56% | Draw 24% | Tranmere 20%, with Sutton Utd to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sutton Utd 49%, Tranmere 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sutton Utd's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Tranmere's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sutton Utd 1.10 PPG, Tranmere 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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