Stockport County 0-0 Salford City – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Stockport County at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Salford City encounter.

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Analysis

Salford City make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League Two (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.

Form

Stockport County (all games): 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Stockport County at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Salford City have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Salford City's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form ledger tips toward Stockport County. A 1.30 PPG lead over Salford City (2.70 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Stockport County edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2023, ended Stockport County 2–1 Salford City — a Stockport County win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 32 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Salford City half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 49% versus Salford City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 43% | Salford City 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.86 xG and Salford City 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.163 / defence 0.747 | Salford City attack 1.175 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.261. Stockport County have a tight defence (rating 0.747), which is pulling Salford City's projected output down. Data: built from Stockport County's last 65 games and Salford City's last 65.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 55% | Draw 23% | Salford City 22%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.82 | Draw 4.43 | Salford City 4.47. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Salford City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Stockport County 30% (last 10 home games) | Salford City 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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