Stockport County 1-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stockport County face Harrogate Town.

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Analysis

Harrogate Town make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League Two (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Stockport County's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Stockport County have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Stockport County are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Harrogate Town have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Harrogate Town have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Stockport County against 2.00 for Harrogate Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Stockport County, 0 for Harrogate Town and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Oct 2023, ended Stockport County 3–1 Harrogate Town — a Stockport County win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 35 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 50% versus Harrogate Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 45% | Harrogate Town 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.65 xG and Harrogate Town 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.286 / defence 0.718 | Harrogate Town attack 1.035 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.349. Stockport County carry an above-average attack rating of 1.286 — their 1.65 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Stockport County have a tight defence (rating 0.718), which is pulling Harrogate Town's projected output down. Data: built from Stockport County's last 74 games and Harrogate Town's last 74.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 52% | Draw 25% | Harrogate Town 23%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.91 | Draw 4.01 | Harrogate Town 4.40. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stockport County 30% (last 10 home games) | Harrogate Town 70% (last 10 away games).

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