Stockport County 1-0 Colchester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colchester at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Colchester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 3 as Stockport County welcome Colchester to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 0W 0D 2L from 2 League Two matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Stockport County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Colchester have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Colchester have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Colchester's 1.70 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Stockport County's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.47 xG and Colchester 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.974 / defence 1.400 | Colchester attack 1.166 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.988. Data: 2 Stockport County games / 48 Colchester games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stockport County 35% | Draw 24% | Colchester 41%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Colchester 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colchester are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colchester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 35% | Draw 24% | Colchester 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Stockport County 1.47 / Colchester 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.974 / def 1.400 | Colchester attack 1.166 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Colchester (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Colchester xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Colchester kick off?
Stockport County vs Colchester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Colchester?
Stockport County 1 - 0 Colchester.
Where is Stockport County vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Colchester part of?
Stockport County vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 35% chance of winning, Colchester a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Stockport County and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Colchester?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and Colchester in?
Stockport County (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Colchester (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (0.97) and Colchester's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
35%
2.88
24%
4.10
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.08
1.61
Colchester xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
7%
14.44
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.61 for Colchester, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Stockport County have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Colchester's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for Colchester, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Colchester are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stockport County.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stockport County have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Colchester in 100%.
Last 2 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Early Season
Colchester
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Colchester in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Colchester have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Stockport County's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Stockport County
0
Draws
0
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Colchester?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 4, Colchester have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2024, when Colchester 1-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Colchester?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Colchester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Stockport County's games and 100% of Colchester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Stockport County's matches and 50% of Colchester's.
Do Stockport County and Colchester tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Colchester in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Colchester 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Colchester 1-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.47 xG and Colchester 1.61 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Colchester landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.97 / defence 1.40 against Colchester attack 1.17 / defence 1.14, drawn from 2/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 35% | Draw 24% | Colchester 41%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 100%, Colchester 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Colchester arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Stockport County winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stockport County conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Colchester managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.