Stevenage 1-1 Scunthorpe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Scunthorpe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Scunthorpe meet at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 7 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Stevenage (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage at The Lamex Stadium this season: 3W 4D 2L from 9 home games — 1.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Scunthorpe's overall League Two record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Scunthorpe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Scunthorpe away from home this season: 0W 4D 5L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Stevenage against 0.70 for Scunthorpe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Scunthorpe — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 39% versus Scunthorpe 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 50% | Scunthorpe 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.55 xG and Scunthorpe 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.824 / defence 1.110 | Scunthorpe attack 0.724 / defence 1.762. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.154. Scunthorpe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.762 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Stevenage games / 19 Scunthorpe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 49% | Draw 31% | Scunthorpe 20%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Scunthorpe 5.00. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 44% | Scunthorpe 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Scunthorpe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 49% | Draw 31% | Scunthorpe 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Stevenage 1.55 / Scunthorpe 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.824 / def 1.110 | Scunthorpe attack 0.724 / def 1.762 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Scunthorpe xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Scunthorpe kick off?
Stevenage vs Scunthorpe kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 7 December 2021 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Scunthorpe?
Stevenage 1 - 1 Scunthorpe.
Where is Stevenage vs Scunthorpe being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Scunthorpe part of?
Stevenage vs Scunthorpe is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Scunthorpe?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 49% chance of winning, Scunthorpe a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Scunthorpe?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stevenage and Scunthorpe will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Scunthorpe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Scunthorpe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Scunthorpe in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Scunthorpe (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.82) and Scunthorpe's defence rating (1.76), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Scunthorpe's attack (0.72x) against Stevenage's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
49%
2.03
31%
3.27
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.48
0.93
Scunthorpe xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
4%
23.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Scunthorpe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Scunthorpe expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.93 for Scunthorpe, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Scunthorpe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stevenage's recent record stands at 4W 6D 8L from 18 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Scunthorpe, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 8L across 18 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Scunthorpe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Stevenage against 0.78 for Scunthorpe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 3W 4D 2L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Scunthorpe's away record stands at 0W 4D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Scunthorpe are on 0.78 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Scunthorpe in 61%.
Last 18 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Scunthorpe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Scunthorpe in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Scunthorpe have gone 2W 8D 8L in their last 18 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Scunthorpe away?
Stevenage's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.44 PPG; Scunthorpe away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Scunthorpe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Scunthorpe in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stevenage
2
Draws
0
Scunthorpe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Scunthorpe?
From 2 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 0, Scunthorpe have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Scunthorpe last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Scunthorpe 1-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Scunthorpe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Scunthorpe 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stevenage) and 56% (Scunthorpe).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Scunthorpe in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Scunthorpe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Scunthorpe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Stevenage's games and 67% of Scunthorpe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stevenage vs Scunthorpe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stevenage's recent games and 56% of Scunthorpe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Scunthorpe tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Scunthorpe in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Scunthorpe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Stevenage and Scunthorpe drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.55 xG and Scunthorpe 0.93 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Scunthorpe attack 0.72 / defence 1.76, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 49% | Draw 31% | Scunthorpe 20%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 50%, Scunthorpe 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Scunthorpe's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.00 PPG, Scunthorpe 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Scunthorpe (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.