Stevenage 1-0 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Stevenage at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Harrogate Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Harrogate Town in League Two, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 24 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's home record at The Lamex Stadium: 7W 0D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Harrogate Town's overall League Two record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Harrogate Town's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Stevenage's favour (2.20 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stevenage lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2022, ended 3–0 with Stevenage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Harrogate Town 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 46% | Harrogate Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.35 xG and Harrogate Town 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.054 / defence 0.872 | Harrogate Town attack 0.895 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.006. Data: 55 Stevenage games / 55 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 50% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 22%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Harrogate Town 4.55. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Harrogate Town 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 50% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Stevenage 1.35 / Harrogate Town 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.054 / def 0.872 | Harrogate Town attack 0.895 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Harrogate Town xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Stevenage vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 September 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Harrogate Town?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Harrogate Town.
Where is Stevenage vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Harrogate Town part of?
Stevenage vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 50% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Stevenage and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Harrogate Town?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 1 | Harrogate Town 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Harrogate Town in?
Stevenage (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Harrogate Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 1.05x the league average against Harrogate Town's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Harrogate Town's attack (0.90x) against Stevenage's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.56
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.14
0.79
Harrogate Town xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
6%
17.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.79 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage's recent record stands at 17W 15D 23L from 55 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Harrogate Town, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 26L across 55 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Stevenage against 1.11 for Harrogate Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 13W 6D 8L from 27 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Harrogate Town's away record stands at 8W 5D 14L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.27 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 17W 15D 23L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 16W 13D 26L in their last 55 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Harrogate Town away?
Stevenage's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.67 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stevenage won 3-0 on 29 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stevenage
2
Draws
0
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Harrogate Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Harrogate Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2023, when Harrogate Town 1-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Harrogate Town?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Harrogate Town 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stevenage) and 59% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stevenage have failed to score in 26% of games; Harrogate Town in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 41% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stevenage's recent games and 59% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Harrogate Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Harrogate Town 1-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.35 xG and Harrogate Town 0.79 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.05 / defence 0.87 against Harrogate Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 50% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 22%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 46%, Harrogate Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.20 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.