Stevenage 1-1 Colchester – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Stevenage at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Colchester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Colchester at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stevenage — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at The Lamex Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Colchester away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stevenage at 1.20 PPG versus Colchester's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Stevenage have won 2, Colchester 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (84 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Colchester in-play and half-time data (84 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Colchester 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 43% | Colchester 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.52 xG and Colchester 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.254 / defence 0.990 | Colchester attack 0.980 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.048. Stevenage carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 84 Stevenage games / 85 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 47% | Draw 29% | Colchester 24%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Colchester 4.17. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Colchester 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 47% | Draw 29% | Colchester 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Stevenage 1.52 / Colchester 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.254 / def 0.990 | Colchester attack 0.980 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Colchester xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Colchester kick off?
Stevenage vs Colchester kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Colchester?
Stevenage 1 - 1 Colchester.
Where is Stevenage vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Colchester part of?
Stevenage vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 47% chance of winning, Colchester a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stevenage and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Colchester?
Record (3 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 1 | Colchester 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Colchester in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Colchester (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (1.25) and Colchester's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 84/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.47
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.54
1.02
Colchester xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
5%
19.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.02 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage's recent record stands at 30W 25D 29L from 84 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Colchester, meanwhile, have gone 23W 23D 38L across 84 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.37 PPG, Colchester on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 22W 7D 12L from 41 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Colchester's away record stands at 13W 5D 23L across 41 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 0.98 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 84 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Colchester
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Colchester in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 30W 25D 29L in their last 84 games (1.37 PPG), while Colchester have gone 23W 23D 38L in their last 84 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Colchester away?
Stevenage's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.78 PPG; Colchester away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Colchester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Colchester in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Colchester runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Stevenage's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stevenage
2
Draws
0
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Colchester?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Colchester have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Stevenage 1-1 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Colchester?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 42%, Colchester 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Stevenage) and 49% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Colchester in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Colchester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stevenage's recent matches and 44% of Colchester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Stevenage's recent games and 49% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Colchester tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Colchester in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Colchester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 40, as Stevenage and Colchester drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.52 xG and Colchester 1.02 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.25 / defence 0.99 against Colchester attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 84/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 47% | Draw 29% | Colchester 24%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 43%, Colchester 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Colchester's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.37 PPG, Colchester 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.