Salford City 2-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Salford City at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Walsall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Salford City and Walsall meet at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 39. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Salford City's overall League Two record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Salford City have posted 4W 4D 2L at The Peninsula Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Walsall (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Walsall's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Salford City against 1.80 for Walsall. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Salford City, 1 for Walsall and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Walsall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Salford City half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Walsall half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 47% versus Walsall 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Salford City 36% | Walsall 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.54 xG and Walsall 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.148 / defence 1.096 | Walsall attack 0.630 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.132. Walsall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Salford City games / 38 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 53% | Draw 29% | Walsall 17%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Walsall 5.88. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Salford City 60% | Walsall 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 53% | Draw 29% | Walsall 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Salford City 1.54 / Walsall 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.148 / def 1.096 | Walsall attack 0.630 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Salford City (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Walsall xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Walsall kick off?
Salford City vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 March 2022 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Walsall?
Salford City 2 - 1 Walsall.
Where is Salford City vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Walsall part of?
Salford City vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 53% chance of winning, Walsall a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Salford City and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Walsall?
Record (1 meetings): Salford City 0W | Draws 0 | Walsall 1W.
What form are Salford City and Walsall in?
Salford City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Walsall (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Salford City's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Walsall's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Walsall's attack (0.63x) against Salford City's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 36/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
53%
1.87
29%
3.39
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.32
0.78
Walsall xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
24%
4.08
4%
27.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Salford City and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Salford City and 0.78 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salford City's recent record stands at 14W 11D 11L from 36 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Walsall, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 13L across 36 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Salford City against 1.31 for Walsall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 7W 7D 3L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Walsall's away record stands at 4W 6D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salford City are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.11 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Walsall in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 14W 11D 11L in their last 36 games (1.47 PPG), while Walsall have gone 12W 11D 13L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Walsall away?
Salford City's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.65 PPG; Walsall away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Salford City or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Walsall in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salford City have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Walsall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Salford City
1
Draws
5
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Walsall?
From 10 meetings on record, Salford City have won 4, Walsall have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Salford City 1-0 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 47%, Walsall 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Salford City and 29% for Walsall.
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Walsall in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Salford City's recent matches and 47% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Salford City's recent games and 29% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Walsall tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Walsall in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Walsall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Walsall 2-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.54 xG and Walsall 0.78 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.15 / defence 1.10 against Walsall attack 0.63 / defence 1.32, drawn from 36/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 53% | Draw 29% | Walsall 17%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 36%, Walsall 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Walsall's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.47 PPG, Walsall 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.