Salford City 4-2 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crewe at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Salford City welcome Crewe to The Peninsula Stadium in League Two (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Salford City — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Salford City's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Crewe stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Crewe away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Crewe's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Salford City's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Salford City have won 1, Crewe 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Mar 2023, ended Salford City 3–4 Crewe — a Crewe win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Salford City in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Crewe in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 56% versus Crewe 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 47% | Crewe 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.21 xG and Crewe 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.733 / defence 1.090 | Crewe attack 1.164 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.259. Salford City's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Data: built from Salford City's last 57 games and Crewe's last 57.
Result probabilities: Salford City 28% | Draw 27% | Crewe 45%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 3.59 | Draw 3.74 | Crewe 2.20. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crewe as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Salford City's last 10 home games and Crewe's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Salford City 40% (last 10 home games) | Crewe 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, matchday 12 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 28% | Draw 27% | Crewe 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Salford City 1.21 / Crewe 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.733 / def 1.090 | Crewe attack 1.164 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Crewe (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Crewe xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salford City vs Crewe FAQs
What time does Salford City vs Crewe kick off?
Salford City vs Crewe kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Crewe?
Salford City 4 - 2 Crewe.
Where is Salford City vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Crewe part of?
Salford City vs Crewe is a League Two fixture (matchday 12) (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 28% chance of winning, Crewe a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Salford City and Crewe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Salford City vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Salford City's attack at 0.73x the league average against Crewe's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salford City's last 57 games and Crewe's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
28%
3.59
27%
3.74
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.80
1.60
Crewe xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
6%
17.75
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salford City vs Crewe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Salford City and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Salford City and 1.60 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City come into this having played 57 games, going 26W 9D 22L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 1.37 PPG from 57 outings (19W 21D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.53 PPG, Crewe on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Salford City's home form reads 11W 6D 11L across their last 28 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 28 away games (4W 13D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crewe's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.30 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Crewe
Blended
Salford City (Home) vs Crewe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salford City
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Salford City vs Crewe Form FAQs
What form are Salford City and Crewe in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 26W 9D 22L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Crewe have gone 19W 21D 17L in their last 57 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Crewe away?
Salford City's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.39 PPG; Crewe away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Crewe have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Aug 2022, when Salford City won Salford City 3-0 Crewe.
Salford City's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Salford City
2
Draws
3
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Salford City vs Crewe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Crewe?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Salford City have won 3, Crewe have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Crewe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Crewe 1-0 Salford City.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 53% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 50%, Crewe 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Salford City) and 46% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Salford City have failed to score in 29% of games; Crewe in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salford City vs Crewe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salford City and Crewe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Salford City's recent matches and 46% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Salford City and Crewe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Salford City's recent games and 46% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Crewe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Salford City's recent matches and 71% of Crewe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salford City cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Crewe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Crewe 4-2 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.21 xG and Crewe 1.60 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.73 / defence 1.09 against Crewe attack 1.16 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 28% | Draw 27% | Crewe 45%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 47%, Crewe 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Crewe's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.53 PPG, Crewe 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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