Salford City 2-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Salford City and Crawley Town meet at Moor Lane in League Two, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Salford City (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Moor Lane, Salford City have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Moor Lane. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Crawley Town have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Salford City's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Crawley Town's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Salford City 3W, Crawley Town 2W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Salford City — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 46% versus Crawley Town 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 44% | Crawley Town 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.35 xG and Crawley Town 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.862 / defence 0.765 | Crawley Town attack 1.023 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.024. Salford City's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Salford City games / 54 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 48% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Crawley Town 5.00. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 30% | Crawley Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Moor Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 48% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Salford City 1.35 / Crawley Town 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.862 / def 0.765 | Crawley Town attack 1.023 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Salford City (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Crawley Town xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Crawley Town kick off?
Salford City vs Crawley Town kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Moor Lane.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Salford City 2 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Salford City vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Moor Lane.
What competition is Salford City vs Crawley Town part of?
Salford City vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 48% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Salford City and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Crawley Town?
Record (8 meetings): Salford City 3W | Draws 3 | Crawley Town 2W.
What form are Salford City and Crawley Town in?
Salford City (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Salford City's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (1.02x) against Salford City's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 56/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
48%
2.09
32%
3.15
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.15
0.80
Crawley Town xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
5%
18.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Salford City and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Salford City and 0.80 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salford City's recent record stands at 29W 8D 17L from 54 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 9W 18D 27L across 54 games — 0.83 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Salford City by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 17W 5D 5L from 27 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 4W 7D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salford City are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 0.96 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 54 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 29W 8D 17L in their last 54 games (1.76 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 18D 27L in their last 54 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Crawley Town away?
Salford City's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 2.07 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Salford City or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salford City have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Salford City
3
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Crawley Town?
From 9 meetings on record, Salford City have won 4, Crawley Town have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Salford City 2-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Crawley Town?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salford City see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 41%, Crawley Town 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Salford City) and 48% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Crawley Town in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Salford City's recent matches and 41% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Salford City's recent games and 48% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 41% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Crawley Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Crawley Town 2-1 at Moor Lane, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.35 xG and Crawley Town 0.80 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.86 / defence 0.77 against Crawley Town attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 56/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 48% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 20%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 44%, Crawley Town 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.