Salford City 1-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Salford City and Crawley Town meet at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Salford City (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Salford City have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at The Peninsula Stadium, Salford City have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Crawley Town have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crawley Town's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Salford City's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Crawley Town's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Salford City 1W, Crawley Town 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 2–3 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Salford City — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 55% versus Crawley Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 47% | Crawley Town 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.45 xG and Crawley Town 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.985 / defence 0.975 | Crawley Town attack 0.898 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.148. Data: 47 Salford City games / 47 Crawley Town games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Salford City 47% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Crawley Town 3.85. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 50% | Crawley Town 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (47 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 47% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Salford City 1.45 / Crawley Town 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.985 / def 0.975 | Crawley Town attack 0.898 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Salford City (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Crawley Town xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Crawley Town kick off?
Salford City vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Salford City 1 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Salford City vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Crawley Town part of?
Salford City vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 47% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Salford City and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Crawley Town?
Record (4 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 2W.
What form are Salford City and Crawley Town in?
Salford City (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Salford City's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.90x) against Salford City's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
The sample (47/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.77
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.45
1.00
Crawley Town xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
6%
16.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Salford City and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Salford City and 1.00 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salford City's recent record stands at 23W 8D 16L from 47 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Salford City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 22L across 47 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Salford City by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 10W 5D 8L from 23 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 2W 6D 15L across 23 trips, a 0.52 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crawley Town's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salford City are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.04 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 47 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 23W 8D 16L in their last 47 games (1.64 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 12W 13D 22L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Crawley Town away?
Salford City's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.52 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salford City have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Salford City
3
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Salford City have won 3, Crawley Town have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Crawley Town 0-0 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Crawley Town?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 44%, Crawley Town 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Salford City) and 52% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Salford City have failed to score in 30% of games; Crawley Town in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Salford City's recent matches and 48% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Salford City's recent games and 52% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salford City and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City and Crawley Town finished level at 1-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.45 xG and Crawley Town 1.00 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Crawley Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 47% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 26%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 47%, Crawley Town 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.