Salford City 0-1 Carlisle – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Salford City at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Carlisle encounter.

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Match Analysis

Salford City host Carlisle at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 9 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Salford City stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Salford City's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Carlisle have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Carlisle have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Salford City are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Salford City have won 2, Carlisle 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Salford City 3–2 Carlisle — a Salford City win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Salford City in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).

Carlisle in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 65% versus Carlisle 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 60% | Carlisle 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.66 xG and Carlisle 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.940 / defence 1.002 | Carlisle attack 0.707 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.254. Carlisle's defence rating of 1.365 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Salford City's projected output up. Carlisle's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Salford City's last 60 games and Carlisle's last 14.

Result probabilities: Salford City 55% | Draw 24% | Carlisle 20%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 1.80 | Draw 4.09 | Carlisle 4.98. The model has a clear lean to Salford City (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Salford City 60% (last 10 home games) | Carlisle 30% (last 10 away games).

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