Salford City 1-0 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Salford City take on Bradford.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 7 as Salford City welcome Bradford to The Peninsula Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 outings — a 0.83 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Salford City have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Peninsula Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bradford — All Games: 3W 2D 1L from 6 League Two fixtures this season — 1.83 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.17. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bradford have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bradford away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.83 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bradford — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.83 vs 0.83). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Salford City trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bradford trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 50% versus Bradford 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 50% | Bradford 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.07 xG and Bradford 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.950 / defence 0.904 | Bradford attack 0.837 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 0.923 / away 1.094. Bradford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Salford City games / 6 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 37% | Draw 38% | Bradford 25%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.70 | Draw 2.63 | Bradford 4.00. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 25% | Bradford 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 37% | Draw 38% | Bradford 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Salford City 1.07 / Bradford 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.950 / def 0.904 | Bradford attack 0.837 / def 1.216 | league avg home 0.923 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Bradford xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Bradford kick off?
Salford City vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Bradford?
Salford City 1 - 0 Bradford.
Where is Salford City vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Bradford part of?
Salford City vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 37% chance of winning, Bradford a 25% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Salford City and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Bradford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salford City and Bradford in?
Salford City (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Bradford (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Salford City's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bradford's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.68
38%
2.63
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Salford City xG
Total xG
1.89
0.83
Bradford xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Salford City and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Salford City and 0.83 for Bradford, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Salford City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bradford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bradford carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Salford City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Salford City's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Salford City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford in 67%.
Last 6 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Early Season
Bradford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Bradford in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Bradford have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Bradford away?
Salford City's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.33 PPG; Bradford away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Salford City or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bradford in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Salford City's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Salford City
2
Draws
5
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Bradford?
From 8 meetings on record, Salford City have won 1, Bradford have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Salford City 1-2 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Salford City 0% BTTS, Bradford 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Salford City and 33% for Bradford.
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Bradford in 33%; Salford City have failed to score in 67% of games; Bradford in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Salford City's recent matches and 33% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Salford City's recent games and 33% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Bradford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Bradford 1-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.07 xG and Bradford 0.83 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bradford landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Bradford attack 0.84 / defence 1.22, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 37% | Draw 38% | Bradford 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 50%, Bradford 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bradford's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Salford City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.