Salford City 0-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 18 as Salford City welcome AFC Wimbledon to The Peninsula Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Salford City) versus 1.40 (AFC Wimbledon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Salford City trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 44% versus AFC Wimbledon 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 38% | AFC Wimbledon 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.43 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.898 / defence 1.010 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.021 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.041. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Salford City games / 17 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 45% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 28%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | AFC Wimbledon 3.57. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 40% | AFC Wimbledon 70% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 45% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Salford City 1.43 / AFC Wimbledon 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.898 / def 1.010 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.021 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Salford City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.07
AFC Wimbledon xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Salford City 0 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 45% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Salford City and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salford City and AFC Wimbledon in?
Salford City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Salford City's attack at 0.90x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.71
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.51
1.07
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Salford City and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Salford City and 1.07 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salford City come into this having played 63 games, going 27W 16D 20L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 0.94 PPG from 63 outings (12W 23D 28L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salford City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Salford City's home form reads 13W 11D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 0.81 points per game from 31 outings (6W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.13 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 27W 16D 20L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 12W 23D 28L in their last 63 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Salford City's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.61 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Salford City or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salford City and AFC Wimbledon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Salford City's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Salford City
2
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and AFC Wimbledon?
From 6 meetings on record, Salford City have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Salford City.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 45%, AFC Wimbledon 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Salford City) and 58% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Salford City have failed to score in 26% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Salford City's recent matches and 55% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Salford City's recent games and 58% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Salford City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City and AFC Wimbledon finished level at 0-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.43 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.07 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.4 short of their projected output. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.02 / defence 1.29, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 45% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 28%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 38%, AFC Wimbledon 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.