Rochdale 1-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rochdale vs Salford City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Salford City travel to Crown Oil Arena to take on Rochdale. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 March 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rochdale's home record at Crown Oil Arena: 3W 7D 0L from 10 League Two appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rochdale are significantly better at Crown Oil Arena than their overall form suggests.
Salford City — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Salford City's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Salford City's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Rochdale's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rochdale, 0 for Salford City and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rochdale in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Salford City in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rochdale 56% versus Salford City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rochdale 47% | Salford City 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rochdale 0.80 xG and Salford City 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rochdale attack 0.941 / defence 1.067 | Salford City attack 0.877 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.097. Data: 34 Rochdale games / 34 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rochdale 25% | Draw 37% | Salford City 38%. Fair-value odds: Rochdale 4.00 | Draw 2.70 | Salford City 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rochdale 60% | Salford City 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rochdale vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Crown Oil Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rochdale 25% | Draw 37% | Salford City 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Rochdale 0.80 / Salford City 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rochdale attack 0.941 / def 1.067 | Salford City attack 0.877 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Salford City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Rochdale xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Salford City xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rochdale vs Salford City kick off?
Rochdale vs Salford City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Crown Oil Arena.
What was the final score in Rochdale vs Salford City?
Rochdale 1 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Rochdale vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Crown Oil Arena.
What competition is Rochdale vs Salford City part of?
Rochdale vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rochdale vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Rochdale a 25% chance of winning, Salford City a 38% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Rochdale and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Rochdale vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Salford City?
Record (1 meetings): Rochdale 0W | Draws 1 | Salford City 0W.
What form are Rochdale and Salford City in?
Rochdale (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Salford City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rochdale's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Salford City's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Rochdale's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
25%
3.93
37%
2.73
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Rochdale xG
Total xG
1.82
1.03
Salford City xG
3.93
25%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 16.6 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rochdale vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Rochdale and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Rochdale and 1.03 for Salford City, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Rochdale vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rochdale come into this having played 34 games, going 8W 15D 11L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.44 PPG from 34 outings (13W 10D 11L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rochdale on 1.15 PPG, Salford City on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rochdale's home form reads 4W 9D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 1.50 points per game from 16 outings (7W 3D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Rochdale are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.12 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rochdale
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rochdale and Salford City in coming into this match?
Rochdale have gone 8W 15D 11L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Salford City have gone 13W 10D 11L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rochdale at home or Salford City away?
Salford City's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rochdale at home: 1.31 PPG; Salford City away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Rochdale or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rochdale have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Salford City in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rochdale and Salford City runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rochdale's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rochdale
2
Draws
1
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Rochdale have won 1, Salford City have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rochdale and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Salford City 2-1 Rochdale.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rochdale see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rochdale 50%, Salford City 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Rochdale and 31% for Salford City.
On the defensive side: Rochdale keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Salford City in 50%; Rochdale have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rochdale home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rochdale play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rochdale's recent matches and 38% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rochdale vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Rochdale's recent games and 31% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rochdale and Salford City tend to score early?
Rochdale have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Salford City in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rochdale and Salford City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rochdale and Salford City finished level at 1-1 at Crown Oil Arena, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rochdale 0.80 xG and Salford City 1.03 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rochdale attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Salford City attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rochdale 25% | Draw 37% | Salford City 38%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rochdale 47%, Salford City 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rochdale's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Salford City's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rochdale 1.15 PPG, Salford City 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.