Rochdale 0-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rochdale at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rochdale vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rochdale host Crawley Town at Crown Oil Arena in League Two, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rochdale's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at Crown Oil Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 1W 0D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rochdale 1.20 PPG, Crawley Town 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Rochdale in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rochdale 60% and Crawley Town 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rochdale 40% | Crawley Town 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rochdale 1.09 xG and Crawley Town 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rochdale attack 0.753 / defence 1.066 | Crawley Town attack 0.834 / defence 1.562. League average goals — home 0.931 / away 1.089. Rochdale's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.562 — this is suppressing Rochdale's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Rochdale games / 10 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rochdale 36% | Draw 34% | Crawley Town 30%. Fair-value odds: Rochdale 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Crawley Town 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rochdale are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rochdale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Rochdale 40% | Crawley Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rochdale vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Crown Oil Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rochdale 36% | Draw 34% | Crawley Town 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Rochdale 1.09 / Crawley Town 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Rochdale attack 0.753 / def 1.066 | Crawley Town attack 0.834 / def 1.562 | league avg home 0.931 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Rochdale (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Rochdale xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Crawley Town xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rochdale vs Crawley Town kick off?
Rochdale vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 October 2021 at Crown Oil Arena.
What was the final score in Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Rochdale 0 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Rochdale vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Crown Oil Arena.
What competition is Rochdale vs Crawley Town part of?
Rochdale vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Rochdale a 36% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Rochdale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rochdale and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Rochdale vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rochdale and Crawley Town in?
Rochdale (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rochdale's attack rating (0.75) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Rochdale's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rochdale Win
36%
2.77
34%
2.92
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Rochdale xG
Total xG
2.06
0.97
Crawley Town xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Rochdale and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Rochdale and 0.97 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rochdale come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 3D 4L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rochdale on 1.20 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rochdale's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crawley Town's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rochdale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rochdale are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.30 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rochdale have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Crawley Town in 60%.
Last 10 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rochdale
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rochdale and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Rochdale have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rochdale at home or Crawley Town away?
Rochdale's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rochdale at home: 1.00 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rochdale's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rochdale
1
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Rochdale have won 0, Crawley Town have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rochdale and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 25 March 2023, when Crawley Town 2-0 Rochdale.
Who has won more matches between Rochdale and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rochdale see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rochdale 40%, Crawley Town 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Rochdale and 40% for Crawley Town.
On the defensive side: Rochdale keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rochdale have failed to score in 40% of games; Crawley Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rochdale home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rochdale play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rochdale's recent matches and 40% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rochdale vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Rochdale's recent games and 40% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rochdale and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Rochdale have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Rochdale 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Rochdale 0-1 at Crown Oil Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rochdale 1.09 xG and Crawley Town 0.97 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rochdale fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rochdale attack 0.75 / defence 1.07 against Crawley Town attack 0.83 / defence 1.56, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rochdale 36% | Draw 34% | Crawley Town 30%, with Rochdale to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rochdale 40%, Crawley Town 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rochdale's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rochdale 1.20 PPG, Crawley Town 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.