Rochdale 1-2 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Crawley Town (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rochdale face Crawley Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rochdale host Crawley Town at Spotland Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 League Two matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Rochdale have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Crawley Town are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Rochdale's 0% and Crawley Town's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H Record
Crawley Town have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Rochdale's 0 victories.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Crawley Town winning.
It is worth noting that Crawley Town have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rochdale 1.19 xG and Crawley Town 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rochdale attack 0.868 / defence 1.150 | Crawley Town attack 0.948 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.126. Data: 1 Rochdale games / 47 Crawley Town games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rochdale 35% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 37%. Fair-value odds: Rochdale 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Crawley Town 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rochdale vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Spotland Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rochdale 35% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Rochdale 1.19 / Crawley Town 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Rochdale attack 0.868 / def 1.150 | Crawley Town attack 0.948 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Rochdale xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Crawley Town xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rochdale vs Crawley Town kick off?
Rochdale vs Crawley Town kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Spotland Stadium.
What was the final score in Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Rochdale 1 - 2 Crawley Town.
Where is Rochdale vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Spotland Stadium.
What competition is Rochdale vs Crawley Town part of?
Rochdale vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Rochdale a 35% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rochdale and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Rochdale vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Crawley Town?
Record (4 meetings): Rochdale 0W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 3W.
What form are Rochdale and Crawley Town in?
Rochdale (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rochdale's attack rating (0.87) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Rochdale's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.64
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Rochdale xG
Total xG
2.42
1.23
Crawley Town xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Rochdale and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Rochdale and 1.23 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rochdale come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Rochdale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rochdale on 0.00 PPG, Crawley Town on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Rochdale are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rochdale have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Crawley Town in 0%.
Last 1 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rochdale
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rochdale and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Rochdale have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Crawley Town go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Rochdale's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Rochdale
1
Draws
4
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Crawley Town?
From 5 meetings on record, Rochdale have won 0, Crawley Town have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rochdale and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Rochdale 1-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Rochdale and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rochdale home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rochdale play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Rochdale's recent matches and 0% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rochdale vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Rochdale's recent games and 0% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rochdale and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Rochdale have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Rochdale 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Rochdale 1-2 at Spotland Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rochdale 1.19 xG and Crawley Town 1.23 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rochdale attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Crawley Town attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rochdale 35% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 37%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rochdale 100%, Crawley Town 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rochdale 0.00 PPG, Crawley Town 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Rochdale scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.