Oldham 0-1 Tranmere – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Oldham take on Tranmere.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tranmere make the trip to Boundary Park to face Oldham in League Two, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Tuesday 7 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Oldham have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Boundary Park, Oldham have gone 2W 1D 6L this season (9 games, 0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Tranmere's overall League Two record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tranmere, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tranmere's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 3L across 9 road games this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Tranmere are 0.70 PPG clear of Oldham in recent League Two fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Oldham — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Tranmere — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 50% versus Tranmere 22%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 67% | Tranmere 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.15 xG and Tranmere 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.978 / defence 1.455 | Tranmere attack 0.680 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.154. Data: 19 Oldham games / 18 Tranmere games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 33% | Draw 34% | Tranmere 33%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Tranmere 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 56% | Tranmere 22% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Tranmere | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 33% | Draw 34% | Tranmere 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Oldham 1.15 / Tranmere 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.978 / def 1.455 | Tranmere attack 0.680 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Tranmere xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Tranmere kick off?
Oldham vs Tranmere kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 7 December 2021 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Tranmere?
Oldham 0 - 1 Tranmere.
Where is Oldham vs Tranmere being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Tranmere part of?
Oldham vs Tranmere is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Tranmere?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 33% chance of winning, Tranmere a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Tranmere?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Oldham and Tranmere will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Tranmere have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Tranmere?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oldham and Tranmere in?
Oldham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Tranmere (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Oldham's attack at 0.98x the league average against Tranmere's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tranmere's attack (0.68x) against Oldham's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
2.99
34%
2.95
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.29
1.14
Tranmere xG
2.99
33%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Tranmere?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Oldham and Tranmere expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Oldham and 1.14 for Tranmere, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Tranmere?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Oldham have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 4W 3D 11L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tranmere's form line: 7W 5D 6L from 18 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Tranmere is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tranmere are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oldham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Oldham have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
On the road, Tranmere have gone 1W 4D 3L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Tranmere's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oldham are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Tranmere are on 0.83 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tranmere in 22%.
Defensively: Tranmere in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Blended
Tranmere
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Tranmere in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 4W 3D 11L in their last 18 games (0.83 PPG), while Tranmere have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Tranmere away?
Oldham's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 0.88 PPG; Tranmere away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Oldham or Tranmere been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Tranmere in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Oldham have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oldham have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tranmere — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Oldham
0
Draws
2
Tranmere
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Tranmere?
From 4 meetings on record, Oldham have won 2, Tranmere have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Tranmere last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Tranmere 1-3 Oldham.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Tranmere see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 62%, Tranmere 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 88% (Oldham) and 25% (Tranmere). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tranmere in 38%; Tranmere in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Tranmere away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Tranmere?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Oldham's recent matches and 25% of Tranmere's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Tranmere usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Oldham's matches and 25% of Tranmere's.
Do Oldham and Tranmere tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Tranmere in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tranmere defy the odds to beat Oldham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tranmere beat Oldham 0-1 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.15 xG and Tranmere 1.14 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oldham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.98 / defence 1.46 against Tranmere attack 0.68 / defence 1.11, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 33% | Draw 34% | Tranmere 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Tranmere win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 67%, Tranmere 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tranmere's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Tranmere arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Oldham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Tranmere (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.