Notts County 1-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Notts County host Crewe at Meadow Lane in League Two, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Notts County — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Notts County's home record at Meadow Lane: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crewe have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Notts County 1.50 PPG, Crewe 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Crewe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Notts County's 0 victories.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Crewe winning.
It is worth noting that Crewe have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Notts County in-play and half-time data (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Crewe in-play and half-time data (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 53% versus Crewe 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 47% | Crewe 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.47 xG and Crewe 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.118 / defence 0.965 | Crewe attack 0.918 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.223. Data: 71 Notts County games / 72 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 46% | Draw 26% | Crewe 28%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Crewe 3.57. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Notts County 50% | Crewe 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 46% | Draw 26% | Crewe 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Notts County 1.47 / Crewe 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.118 / def 0.965 | Crewe attack 0.918 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Notts County (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Crewe xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Crewe kick off?
Notts County vs Crewe kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Crewe?
Notts County 1 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Notts County vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Crewe part of?
Notts County vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 46% chance of winning, Crewe a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Notts County and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Crewe?
Record (5 meetings): Notts County 0W | Draws 1 | Crewe 4W.
What form are Notts County and Crewe in?
Notts County (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Crewe (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Notts County's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Crewe's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.83
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.55
1.08
Crewe xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Notts County and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Notts County and 1.08 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Notts County's recent record stands at 32W 17D 23L from 72 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crewe, meanwhile, have gone 26W 23D 23L across 72 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.57 PPG, Crewe on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Notts County have managed 16W 7D 12L from 35 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crewe's away record stands at 10W 13D 12L across 35 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Notts County are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.26 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 72 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Crewe in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 32W 17D 23L in their last 72 games (1.57 PPG), while Crewe have gone 26W 23D 23L in their last 72 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Crewe away?
Notts County's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.57 PPG; Crewe away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Notts County or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Crewe in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Notts County's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Notts County
1
Draws
4
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Crewe?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 1, Crewe have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Notts County 1-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Crewe see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 49%, Crewe 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Notts County) and 31% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Crewe in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Notts County's recent matches and 51% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Notts County's recent games and 31% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Crewe tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Crewe in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Crewe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Crewe 1-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.47 xG and Crewe 1.08 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crewe landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Crewe attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 71/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 46% | Draw 26% | Crewe 28%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 47%, Crewe 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crewe's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.57 PPG, Crewe 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.