Northampton 0-0 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Walsall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 30 as Northampton welcome Walsall to Sixfields Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Northampton have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Walsall stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Walsall's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Northampton) versus 2.00 (Walsall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Northampton register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Walsall in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Northampton, 1 for Walsall and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Walsall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Northampton in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Walsall in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 48% versus Walsall 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 44% | Walsall 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.05 xG and Walsall 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.038 / defence 0.936 | Walsall attack 0.907 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.057. Data: 73 Northampton games / 71 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 38% | Draw 32% | Walsall 30%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Walsall 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Northampton 60% | Walsall 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 38% | Draw 32% | Walsall 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Northampton 1.05 / Walsall 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.038 / def 0.936 | Walsall attack 0.907 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Northampton (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Walsall xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Walsall kick off?
Northampton vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Walsall?
Northampton 0 - 0 Walsall.
Where is Northampton vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Walsall part of?
Northampton vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 38% chance of winning, Walsall a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Northampton and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Walsall?
Record (3 meetings): Northampton 1W | Draws 1 | Walsall 1W.
What form are Northampton and Walsall in?
Northampton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Walsall (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (1.04) and Walsall's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
38%
2.60
32%
3.17
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.95
0.90
Walsall xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Northampton and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Northampton and 0.90 for Walsall, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 71 games, going 35W 17D 19L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Walsall sit at 1.28 PPG from 71 outings (24W 19D 28L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Walsall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 19W 8D 8L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Walsall have taken 0.94 points per game from 35 outings (7W 12D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.08 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Walsall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Walsall in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 35W 17D 19L in their last 71 games (1.72 PPG), while Walsall have gone 24W 19D 28L in their last 71 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Walsall away?
Northampton's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.86 PPG; Walsall away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Northampton or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Walsall in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Walsall runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Northampton's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Northampton
2
Draws
1
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Walsall?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Walsall have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Northampton 0-0 Walsall.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Walsall see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 40%, Walsall 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Northampton) and 31% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Northampton have failed to score in 26% of games; Walsall in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Northampton's recent matches and 49% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Northampton's recent games and 31% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Walsall tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Walsall in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Northampton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton and Walsall finished level at 0-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.05 xG and Walsall 0.90 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Walsall landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Walsall attack 0.91 / defence 0.81, drawn from 73/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 38% | Draw 32% | Walsall 30%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 44%, Walsall 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Walsall's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.