Northampton 0-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Northampton and AFC Wimbledon meet at Sixfields Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 14 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Northampton's overall League Two record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Northampton at Sixfields Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Northampton against 1.40 for AFC Wimbledon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Northampton, 0 for AFC Wimbledon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Northampton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Northampton — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 48% versus AFC Wimbledon 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 43% | AFC Wimbledon 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.15 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.979 / defence 0.864 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.828 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.066. Data: 75 Northampton games / 29 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 45% | Draw 31% | AFC Wimbledon 24%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | AFC Wimbledon 4.17. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 50% | AFC Wimbledon 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 45% | Draw 31% | AFC Wimbledon 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Northampton 1.15 / AFC Wimbledon 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.979 / def 0.864 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.828 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Northampton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.76
AFC Wimbledon xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 14 February 2023 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Northampton 0 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 45% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Northampton and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (1 meetings): Northampton 1W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Northampton and AFC Wimbledon in?
Northampton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Northampton's attack at 0.98x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.83x) against Northampton's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 75/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.23
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.91
0.76
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
8%
12.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Northampton and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Northampton and 0.76 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Northampton's recent record stands at 35W 20D 20L from 75 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 16W 29D 30L across 75 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Northampton by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Wimbledon heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Northampton have managed 19W 9D 9L from 37 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 7W 10D 20L across 37 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Northampton are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.05 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 35W 20D 20L in their last 75 games (1.67 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 16W 29D 30L in their last 75 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Northampton's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.78 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Northampton or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Northampton have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Northampton
1
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and AFC Wimbledon?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 40%, AFC Wimbledon 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Northampton) and 51% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Northampton have failed to score in 27% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Northampton's recent matches and 49% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Northampton's recent games and 51% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Northampton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton and AFC Wimbledon finished level at 0-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.15 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.76 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 75/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 45% | Draw 31% | AFC Wimbledon 24%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 43%, AFC Wimbledon 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.