Morecambe 1-1 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Notts County at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Morecambe vs Notts County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Morecambe host Notts County at Mazuma Mobile Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Morecambe have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Morecambe have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Morecambe at Mazuma Mobile Stadium this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Notts County stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Notts County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Notts County's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Notts County — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Morecambe, 1 for Notts County and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2023, ended 0–5 with Notts County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Morecambe in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Notts County in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Morecambe 58% and Notts County 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Morecambe 62% | Notts County 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 1.17 xG and Notts County 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 0.850 / defence 1.253 | Notts County attack 1.265 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.139. Notts County have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Morecambe games / 53 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Morecambe 25% | Draw 23% | Notts County 52%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Notts County 1.92. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Morecambe 50% | Notts County 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Mazuma Mobile Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 25% | Draw 23% | Notts County 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Morecambe 1.17 / Notts County 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 0.850 / def 1.253 | Notts County attack 1.265 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Notts County (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Notts County xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Morecambe vs Notts County kick off?
Morecambe vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Notts County?
Morecambe 1 - 1 Notts County.
Where is Morecambe vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Notts County part of?
Morecambe vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 25% chance of winning, Notts County a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Morecambe and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Morecambe vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Notts County?
Record (2 meetings): Morecambe 0W | Draws 1 | Notts County 1W.
What form are Morecambe and Notts County in?
Morecambe (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Notts County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Morecambe's attack at 0.85x the league average against Notts County's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Morecambe's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
25%
4.05
23%
4.33
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Morecambe xG
Total xG
2.98
1.80
Notts County xG
4.05
25%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
4%
24.64
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.80 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Morecambe's recent record stands at 17W 12D 24L from 53 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Morecambe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 22L across 53 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Morecambe on 1.19 PPG, Notts County on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Morecambe have managed 8W 8D 10L from 26 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Notts County's away record stands at 8W 6D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Morecambe are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.94 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County in 68%.
Last 53 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Early Season
Notts County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Morecambe and Notts County in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 17W 12D 24L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Notts County have gone 22W 9D 22L in their last 53 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Notts County away?
Morecambe's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.23 PPG; Notts County away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Morecambe and Notts County runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Dec 2023, when Notts County won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Morecambe's record when hosting Notts County specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Morecambe
2
Draws
2
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Notts County?
From 4 meetings on record, Morecambe have won 0, Notts County have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Notts County 2-0 Morecambe.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Notts County?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 58%, Notts County 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Morecambe) and 65% (Notts County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Morecambe play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Morecambe's games and 69% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Morecambe vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Morecambe's matches and 65% of Notts County's.
Do Morecambe and Notts County tend to score early?
Morecambe have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Notts County in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Morecambe and Notts County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Morecambe and Notts County finished level at 1-1 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.17 xG and Notts County 1.80 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Notts County landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.85 / defence 1.25 against Notts County attack 1.26 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 25% | Draw 23% | Notts County 52%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 62%, Notts County 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Notts County's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Morecambe 1.19 PPG, Notts County 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.