Gillingham 0-0 Stockport County – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gillingham face Stockport County.

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Analysis & Preview

Stockport County travel to Priestfield Stadium to take on Gillingham in League Two (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 20 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Gillingham stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Gillingham have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Stockport County have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Stockport County's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Gillingham) versus 1.50 (Stockport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Gillingham have won 1, Stockport County 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Gillingham 1–0 Stockport County — a Gillingham win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Gillingham trading profile (last 78 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Stockport County trading profile (last 78 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 36 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 36% versus Stockport County 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gillingham 30% | Stockport County 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.17 xG and Stockport County 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.759 / defence 0.976 | Stockport County attack 1.282 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.330. Gillingham's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Stockport County have an above-average attack rating of 1.282, which lifts their away xG to 1.67. Data: built from Gillingham's last 78 games and Stockport County's last 78.

Result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 48%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.84 | Draw 3.90 | Stockport County 2.07. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Gillingham's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gillingham 50% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 70% (last 10 away games).

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