Gillingham vs Crewe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Gillingham take on Crewe.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Priestfield Stadium plays host to Gillingham versus Crewe in League Two, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gillingham have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gillingham's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Priestfield Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Priestfield Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Crewe's overall League Two record this term: 4W 6D 0L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crewe's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Gillingham against 1.80 for Crewe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gillingham lead 3W to 4W over the last 10 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 10 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Crewe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Gillingham — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Crewe — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 53% versus Crewe 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 47% | Crewe 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 0.91 xG and Crewe 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.919 / defence 0.965 | Crewe attack 0.908 / defence 0.725. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Crewe's defence strength of 0.725 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Gillingham games / 57 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 32% | Draw 37% | Crewe 31%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | Crewe 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 30% | Crewe 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 32% | Draw 37% | Crewe 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Gillingham 0.91 / Crewe 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.919 / def 0.965 | Crewe attack 0.908 / def 0.725 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Crewe xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Crewe kick off?
Gillingham vs Crewe is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Priestfield Stadium.
Where is Gillingham vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Crewe part of?
Gillingham vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 32% chance of winning, Crewe a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Gillingham and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crewe?
Record (10 meetings): Gillingham 3W | Draws 3 | Crewe 4W.
What form are Gillingham and Crewe in?
Gillingham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Crewe (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.92x the league average against Crewe's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (0.91x) against Gillingham's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
37%
2.68
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Gillingham xG
Total xG
1.80
0.89
Crewe xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.8 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Gillingham and 0.89 for Crewe, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gillingham's recent record stands at 17W 18D 22L from 57 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crewe, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 17L across 57 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Gillingham against 1.54 for Crewe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gillingham have managed 10W 9D 9L from 28 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crewe's away record stands at 9W 8D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gillingham are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.39 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 57 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Crewe in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 17W 18D 22L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Crewe have gone 24W 16D 17L in their last 57 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Crewe away?
Gillingham's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.39 PPG; Crewe away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gillingham have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Crewe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gillingham
3
Draws
4
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crewe?
From 10 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 3, Crewe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Crewe 1-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 57%, Crewe 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Gillingham) and 39% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Crewe in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Crewe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Gillingham's games and 54% of Crewe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gillingham vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Gillingham's recent games and 39% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Crewe tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Crewe in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.