Forest Green 3-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Forest Green at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forest Green vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Forest Green and Salford City meet at The Fully Charged New Lawn in League Two, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Forest Green have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Forest Green, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Forest Green have posted 3W 1D 2L at The Fully Charged New Lawn — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Salford City's overall League Two record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Salford City have posted 1W 0D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Forest Green, 1.40 for Salford City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Forest Green half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Salford City half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forest Green 38% versus Salford City 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Forest Green 38% | Salford City 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forest Green 1.42 xG and Salford City 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forest Green attack 1.039 / defence 1.215 | Salford City attack 0.830 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.123. Salford City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing Forest Green's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Forest Green games / 13 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forest Green 41% | Draw 32% | Salford City 27%. Fair-value odds: Forest Green 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Salford City 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forest Green at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Forest Green if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Forest Green 33% | Salford City 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forest Green vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The Fully Charged New Lawn • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forest Green 41% | Draw 32% | Salford City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Forest Green 1.42 / Salford City 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Forest Green attack 1.039 / def 1.215 | Salford City attack 0.830 / def 1.374 | league avg home 0.993 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Forest Green (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Forest Green xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Salford City xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forest Green vs Salford City kick off?
Forest Green vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at The Fully Charged New Lawn.
What was the final score in Forest Green vs Salford City?
Forest Green 3 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Forest Green vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at The Fully Charged New Lawn.
What competition is Forest Green vs Salford City part of?
Forest Green vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Forest Green vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Forest Green a 41% chance of winning, Salford City a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Forest Green the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Forest Green and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Forest Green vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Salford City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forest Green and Salford City in?
Forest Green (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Salford City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Forest Green's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Salford City's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (0.83x) against Forest Green's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forest Green Win
41%
2.47
32%
3.09
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Forest Green xG
Total xG
2.55
1.13
Salford City xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forest Green vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Forest Green and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Forest Green and 1.13 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Forest Green vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Forest Green have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 8W 3D 2L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Forest Green is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salford City's form line: 4W 4D 5L from 13 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forest Green are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salford City.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Forest Green have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 2.08 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Salford City have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Salford City's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forest Green come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Forest Green are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.08 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Salford City in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forest Green
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forest Green and Salford City in coming into this match?
Forest Green have gone 8W 3D 2L in their last 13 games (2.08 PPG), while Salford City have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forest Green at home or Salford City away?
Forest Green's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forest Green at home: 1.40 PPG; Salford City away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Forest Green or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Salford City in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Forest Green have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Forest Green
2
Draws
1
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Forest Green have won 1, Salford City have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Forest Green and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Salford City 2-2 Forest Green.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Forest Green see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forest Green 20%, Salford City 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Forest Green) and 60% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Forest Green keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Forest Green have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forest Green home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forest Green play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Forest Green's recent matches and 60% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forest Green vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Forest Green's recent games and 60% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forest Green and Salford City tend to score early?
Forest Green have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Salford City in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forest Green cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Salford City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forest Green beat Salford City 3-1 at The Fully Charged New Lawn, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forest Green 1.42 xG and Salford City 1.13 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Forest Green beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forest Green attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against Salford City attack 0.83 / defence 1.37, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forest Green 41% | Draw 32% | Salford City 27%, with Forest Green to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forest Green 38%, Salford City 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forest Green's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Salford City's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Forest Green arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Forest Green (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Salford City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.