Fleetwood Town 1-2 Notts County – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Notts County at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fleetwood Town vs Notts County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fleetwood Town and Notts County meet at Highbury Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fleetwood Town have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fleetwood Town's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Highbury Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fleetwood Town are significantly better at Highbury Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Notts County (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Notts County away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Notts County are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fleetwood Town, 1 for Notts County and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Notts County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fleetwood Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fleetwood Town 56% versus Notts County 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fleetwood Town 49% | Notts County 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fleetwood Town 1.22 xG and Notts County 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fleetwood Town attack 1.112 / defence 1.084 | Notts County attack 1.000 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.215. Data: 73 Fleetwood Town games / 73 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 34% | Draw 27% | Notts County 39%. Fair-value odds: Fleetwood Town 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Notts County 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fleetwood Town 90% | Notts County 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fleetwood Town vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Highbury Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 34% | Draw 27% | Notts County 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Fleetwood Town 1.22 / Notts County 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Fleetwood Town attack 1.112 / def 1.084 | Notts County attack 1.000 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Notts County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Fleetwood Town xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Notts County xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fleetwood Town vs Notts County kick off?
Fleetwood Town vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Highbury Stadium.
What was the final score in Fleetwood Town vs Notts County?
Fleetwood Town 1 - 2 Notts County.
Where is Fleetwood Town vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Highbury Stadium.
What competition is Fleetwood Town vs Notts County part of?
Fleetwood Town vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Fleetwood Town vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Fleetwood Town a 34% chance of winning, Notts County a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fleetwood Town vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fleetwood Town and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Fleetwood Town vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Notts County?
Record (3 meetings): Fleetwood Town 0W | Draws 2 | Notts County 1W.
What form are Fleetwood Town and Notts County in?
Fleetwood Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Notts County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fleetwood Town's attack rating (1.11) and Notts County's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (1.00x) against Fleetwood Town's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
34%
2.92
27%
3.74
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Fleetwood Town xG
Total xG
2.54
1.32
Notts County xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.90
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fleetwood Town and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.32 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Fleetwood Town vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fleetwood Town come into this having played 73 games, going 25W 22D 26L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Fleetwood Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Notts County sit at 1.62 PPG from 73 outings (34W 16D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Fleetwood Town against 1.62 for Notts County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fleetwood Town's home form reads 13W 16D 7L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Notts County have taken 1.58 points per game from 36 outings (16W 9D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.47 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 73 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fleetwood Town
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fleetwood Town and Notts County in coming into this match?
Fleetwood Town have gone 25W 22D 26L in their last 73 games (1.33 PPG), while Notts County have gone 34W 16D 23L in their last 73 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fleetwood Town at home or Notts County away?
Notts County's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fleetwood Town at home: 1.53 PPG; Notts County away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Fleetwood Town or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fleetwood Town have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Notts County in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Notts County have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fleetwood Town have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Notts County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Fleetwood Town
2
Draws
2
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Notts County?
From 4 meetings on record, Fleetwood Town have won 0, Notts County have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fleetwood Town and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Fleetwood Town 1-2 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Fleetwood Town and Notts County?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fleetwood Town 58%, Notts County 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fleetwood Town) and 44% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Fleetwood Town keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fleetwood Town home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fleetwood Town play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Fleetwood Town's games and 56% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fleetwood Town vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fleetwood Town's recent games and 44% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fleetwood Town and Notts County tend to score early?
Fleetwood Town have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Notts County in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Fleetwood Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Fleetwood Town 1-2 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.22 xG and Notts County 1.32 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 1.11 / defence 1.08 against Notts County attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 34% | Draw 27% | Notts County 39%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 49%, Notts County 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Notts County's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.33 PPG, Notts County 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.