Fleetwood Town 0-0 Newport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fleetwood Town at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fleetwood Town vs Newport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Newport County travel to Highbury Stadium to take on Fleetwood Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Fleetwood Town have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood Town have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Newport County — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Newport County's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fleetwood Town 1.10 PPG, Newport County 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fleetwood Town have won 2, Newport County 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Fleetwood Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fleetwood Town trading profile (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Newport County trading profile (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fleetwood Town 58% versus Newport County 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fleetwood Town 50% | Newport County 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fleetwood Town 1.97 xG and Newport County 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fleetwood Town attack 1.174 / defence 1.205 | Newport County attack 0.894 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.187. Newport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Fleetwood Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 78 Fleetwood Town games / 79 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 54% | Draw 22% | Newport County 25%. Fair-value odds: Fleetwood Town 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Newport County 4.00. Fleetwood Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fleetwood Town are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fleetwood Town 90% | Newport County 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fleetwood Town vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Highbury Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 54% | Draw 22% | Newport County 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Fleetwood Town 1.97 / Newport County 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Fleetwood Town attack 1.174 / def 1.205 | Newport County attack 0.894 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Fleetwood Town xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Newport County xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fleetwood Town vs Newport County kick off?
Fleetwood Town vs Newport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Highbury Stadium.
What was the final score in Fleetwood Town vs Newport County?
Fleetwood Town 0 - 0 Newport County.
Where is Fleetwood Town vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at Highbury Stadium.
What competition is Fleetwood Town vs Newport County part of?
Fleetwood Town vs Newport County is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Fleetwood Town vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Fleetwood Town a 54% chance of winning, Newport County a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fleetwood Town vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fleetwood Town and Newport County will score (BTTS).
Will Fleetwood Town vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Newport County?
Record (3 meetings): Fleetwood Town 2W | Draws 1 | Newport County 0W.
What form are Fleetwood Town and Newport County in?
Fleetwood Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Newport County (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fleetwood Town's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Newport County's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Newport County's attack versus Fleetwood Town's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
54%
1.87
22%
4.58
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Fleetwood Town xG
Total xG
3.25
1.28
Newport County xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
3%
29.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Fleetwood Town and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.28 for Newport County, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Fleetwood Town vs Newport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 78 outings, Fleetwood Town have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 27W 23D 28L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Newport County's form line: 19W 16D 43L from 78 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fleetwood Town on 1.33 PPG, Newport County on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fleetwood Town have posted 1.49 PPG from 39 outings (14W 16D 9L).
On the road, Newport County have gone 7W 7D 25L from 39 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fleetwood Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.05 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
Newport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fleetwood Town and Newport County in coming into this match?
Fleetwood Town have gone 27W 23D 28L in their last 78 games (1.33 PPG), while Newport County have gone 19W 16D 43L in their last 78 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fleetwood Town at home or Newport County away?
Fleetwood Town's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fleetwood Town at home: 1.49 PPG; Newport County away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fleetwood Town's record when hosting Newport County specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fleetwood Town
2
Draws
0
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Newport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Fleetwood Town have won 2, Newport County have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fleetwood Town and Newport County last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Fleetwood Town 0-0 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Fleetwood Town and Newport County?
Fleetwood Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fleetwood Town 62%, Newport County 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Fleetwood Town) and 56% (Newport County).
On the defensive side: Fleetwood Town keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Newport County in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fleetwood Town home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fleetwood Town play Newport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Fleetwood Town's recent matches and 44% of Newport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fleetwood Town vs Newport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Fleetwood Town's recent games and 56% of Newport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fleetwood Town and Newport County tend to score early?
Fleetwood Town have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Newport County in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fleetwood Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 35, as Fleetwood Town and Newport County drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.97 xG and Newport County 1.28 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fleetwood Town fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Newport County landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 1.17 / defence 1.21 against Newport County attack 0.89 / defence 1.35, drawn from 78/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 54% | Draw 22% | Newport County 25%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 50%, Newport County 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Newport County's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.33 PPG, Newport County 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.