Doncaster 1-3 Notts County – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Doncaster at 54%, yet in-form Notts County provide a compelling counter-argument — this Doncaster vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eco-Power Stadium plays host to Doncaster versus Notts County in League Two (matchday 4). Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Doncaster's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Doncaster's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Notts County (all games): 1W 1D 1L across their last 3 — 1.33 points per game. Last five: L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Notts County arrive in superior form — a 0.83 PPG advantage (1.33 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Doncaster half-time and goal-timing data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Notts County half-time and goal-timing data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Doncaster 33% versus Notts County 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Doncaster 67% | Notts County 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Doncaster 1.64 xG and Notts County 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Doncaster attack 0.854 / defence 1.122 | Notts County attack 0.732 / defence 1.380. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.090. Notts County's defence rating of 1.380 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Doncaster's projected output up. Notts County's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Doncaster's last 49 games and Notts County's last 3.
Result probabilities: Doncaster 54% | Draw 25% | Notts County 20%. Fair-value odds: Doncaster 1.84 | Draw 3.94 | Notts County 4.95. Doncaster hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Doncaster as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Notts County (1.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Doncaster if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though recent form (Doncaster's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 3 games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Doncaster 40% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 67% (last 3 games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Doncaster vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, matchday 4 | Venue: Eco-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Doncaster 54% | Draw 25% | Notts County 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Doncaster 1.64 / Notts County 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Doncaster attack 0.854 / def 1.122 | Notts County attack 0.732 / def 1.380 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Doncaster (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Doncaster xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Notts County xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Doncaster vs Notts County FAQs
What time does Doncaster vs Notts County kick off?
Doncaster vs Notts County kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Eco-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Doncaster vs Notts County?
Doncaster 1 - 3 Notts County.
Where is Doncaster vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Eco-Power Stadium.
What competition is Doncaster vs Notts County part of?
Doncaster vs Notts County is a League Two fixture (matchday 4) (England).
Who is favourite to win Doncaster vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Doncaster a 54% chance of winning, Notts County a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Doncaster the favourite.
Will both teams score in Doncaster vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Doncaster and Notts County will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Doncaster vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Doncaster's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Notts County's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (0.73x) against Doncaster's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Doncaster's last 49 games and Notts County's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Doncaster Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.94
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Doncaster xG
Total xG
2.53
0.90
Notts County xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
4%
25.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Doncaster vs Notts County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Doncaster vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Doncaster and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Doncaster and 0.90 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Doncaster vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Doncaster have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — L-L-D across the most recent five.
Notts County's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D.
Put side by side, Notts County are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Doncaster.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Doncaster are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.33 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County in 67%.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Doncaster
Early Season
Notts County
Early Season
Doncaster (Home) vs Notts County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Doncaster
Early Season
Notts County
Early Season
❓ Doncaster vs Notts County Form FAQs
What form are Doncaster and Notts County in coming into this match?
Doncaster have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Notts County have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Doncaster or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Doncaster have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Notts County in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Notts County won Notts County 3-0 Doncaster on 26 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Doncaster have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Notts County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Doncaster
2
Draws
2
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Doncaster vs Notts County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Doncaster and Notts County?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Doncaster have won 1, Notts County have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Doncaster and Notts County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Doncaster 1-1 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Doncaster and Notts County?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Doncaster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Doncaster 33%, Notts County 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Doncaster and 67% for Notts County. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Notts County in 33%; Doncaster have failed to score in 67% of games; Notts County in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Doncaster home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Doncaster vs Notts County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Doncaster and Notts County matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Doncaster's recent matches and 67% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Doncaster and Notts County matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Doncaster's matches and 67% of Notts County's.
Do Doncaster and Notts County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Doncaster's recent matches and 67% of Notts County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Notts County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Doncaster.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Doncaster 1-3 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.64 xG and Notts County 0.90 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Notts County outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Notts County attack 0.73 / defence 1.38, drawn from 49/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Doncaster 54% | Draw 25% | Notts County 20%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Notts County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 67%, Notts County 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Doncaster's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Notts County's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Notts County scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 4
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →