Crewe 1-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crewe vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mornflake Stadium plays host to Crewe versus Gillingham in League Two, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crewe have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crewe have posted 4W 2D 4L at Mornflake Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gillingham's overall League Two record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Crewe against 1.00 for Gillingham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crewe lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Gillingham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Crewe — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Gillingham — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 51% versus Gillingham 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crewe 46% | Gillingham 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.36 xG and Gillingham 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.978 / defence 1.092 | Gillingham attack 0.575 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.036. Data: 11 Crewe games / 11 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 54% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 18%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Gillingham 5.56. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crewe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crewe 60% | Gillingham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 54% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 36% | xG Crewe 1.36 / Gillingham 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.978 / def 1.092 | Gillingham attack 0.575 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Crewe (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Gillingham xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Gillingham kick off?
Crewe vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Gillingham?
Crewe 1 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Crewe vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Gillingham part of?
Crewe vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 54% chance of winning, Gillingham a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Crewe and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Gillingham?
Record (2 meetings): Crewe 1W | Draws 0 | Gillingham 1W.
What form are Crewe and Gillingham in?
Crewe (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Gillingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crewe's attack at 0.98x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.57x) against Crewe's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.56
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.01
0.65
Gillingham xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
5%
21.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Crewe and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Crewe and 0.65 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Crewe have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 11W 12D 34L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gillingham's form line: 10W 20D 27L from 57 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Crewe against 0.88 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (8W 5D 15L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 4W 10D 14L from 28 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crewe are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.67 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 57 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 11W 12D 34L in their last 57 games (0.79 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 10W 20D 27L in their last 57 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Gillingham away?
Crewe's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.04 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crewe have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Crewe
3
Draws
3
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Gillingham?
From 10 meetings on record, Crewe have won 4, Gillingham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Crewe 1-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Gillingham?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 50%, Gillingham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Crewe) and 32% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Crewe have failed to score in 29% of games; Gillingham in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Crewe's recent matches and 50% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Crewe's recent games and 32% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Gillingham tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe and Gillingham finished level at 1-1 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.36 xG and Gillingham 0.65 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.98 / defence 1.09 against Gillingham attack 0.57 / defence 1.15, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 54% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 18%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 46%, Gillingham 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 0.79 PPG, Gillingham 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.