Crawley Town 0-0 Walsall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Crawley Town at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Walsall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Walsall make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 45. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Broadfield Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Walsall's overall League Two record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Walsall have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Crawley Town's favour (1.60 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Crawley Town 1W, Walsall 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Walsall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 58% versus Walsall 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 53% | Walsall 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.72 xG and Walsall 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.060 / defence 1.076 | Walsall attack 0.765 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.070. Walsall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 90 Crawley Town games / 90 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 56% | Draw 26% | Walsall 18%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Walsall 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Crawley Town (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 70% | Walsall 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 56% | Draw 26% | Walsall 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Crawley Town 1.72 / Walsall 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.060 / def 1.076 | Walsall attack 0.765 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Walsall xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Walsall kick off?
Crawley Town vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Crawley Town 0 - 0 Walsall.
Where is Crawley Town vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Walsall part of?
Crawley Town vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 56% chance of winning, Walsall a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crawley Town and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Walsall?
Record (3 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 1 | Walsall 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Walsall in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Walsall (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.06x the league average against Walsall's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Walsall's attack (0.77x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 90/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.86
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.60
0.88
Walsall xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
3%
31.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.88 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crawley Town come into this having played 90 games, going 28W 22D 40L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Walsall sit at 1.17 PPG from 90 outings (25W 30D 35L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.17 for Walsall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Crawley Town's home form reads 18W 12D 15L across 45 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Walsall have taken 0.82 points per game from 45 outings (7W 16D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.01 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 90 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Walsall in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 28W 22D 40L in their last 90 games (1.18 PPG), while Walsall have gone 25W 30D 35L in their last 90 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Walsall away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.47 PPG; Walsall away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Walsall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
6
Draws
1
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Walsall?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Walsall have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Walsall 0-0 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Walsall see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, Walsall 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Crawley Town) and 33% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 27% of games; Walsall in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 47% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Crawley Town's recent games and 33% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Walsall tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Walsall in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crawley Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Crawley Town and Walsall drew 0-0 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.72 xG and Walsall 0.88 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Walsall landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Walsall attack 0.77 / defence 1.33, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 56% | Draw 26% | Walsall 18%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 53%, Walsall 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Walsall's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.18 PPG, Walsall 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Walsall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.