Crawley Town 3-1 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Swindon Town.

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Match Analysis

Crawley Town host Swindon Town at Broadfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 26). Kick-off is Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Crawley Town — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Crawley Town have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Swindon Town stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Swindon Town's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 1.20 PPG versus Swindon Town's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Swindon Town's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Crawley Town have won 2, Swindon Town 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Crawley Town 0–6 Swindon Town — a Swindon Town win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Swindon Town in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Swindon Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 54% | Swindon Town 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 2.30 xG and Swindon Town 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.114 / defence 1.176 | Swindon Town attack 1.033 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.297. Swindon Town's defence rating of 1.360 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crawley Town's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 70 games and Swindon Town's last 71.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 54% | Draw 21% | Swindon Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.86 | Draw 4.86 | Swindon Town 3.89. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (2.30 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 54% — moderate model lean.

The Poisson model projects 3.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Swindon Town's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Swindon Town 80% (last 10 away games).

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