Crawley Town 1-2 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 23 as Crawley Town welcome Sutton Utd to Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Broadfield Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sutton Utd stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 1.20 (Sutton Utd). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 0, Sutton Utd 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Sutton Utd winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sutton Utd in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 60% versus Sutton Utd 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 54% | Sutton Utd 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.41 xG and Sutton Utd 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.000 / defence 1.059 | Sutton Utd attack 0.825 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.071. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Crawley Town games / 68 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 48% | Draw 27% | Sutton Utd 25%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Sutton Utd 4.00. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 50% | Sutton Utd 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 48% | Draw 27% | Sutton Utd 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Crawley Town 1.41 / Sutton Utd 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.000 / def 1.059 | Sutton Utd attack 0.825 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sutton Utd xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd?
Crawley Town 1 - 2 Sutton Utd.
Where is Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd part of?
Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 48% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Crawley Town and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Sutton Utd?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Sutton Utd 2W.
What form are Crawley Town and Sutton Utd in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Sutton Utd (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (1.00) and Sutton Utd's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.65
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.35
0.94
Sutton Utd xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
6%
16.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.94 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 22W 16D 29L from 67 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have gone 29W 15D 23L across 67 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.22 PPG, Sutton Utd on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 13W 7D 13L from 33 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sutton Utd's away record stands at 9W 8D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sutton Utd's season.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.30 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 67 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 22W 16D 29L in their last 67 games (1.22 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 29W 15D 23L in their last 67 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Sutton Utd away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.39 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Sutton Utd runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2022, when Sutton Utd won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
4
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Sutton Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Sutton Utd have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Sutton Utd 2-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Sutton Utd?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 54%, Sutton Utd 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Crawley Town) and 42% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 30% of games; Sutton Utd in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 46% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Crawley Town's recent games and 42% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sutton Utd defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Crawley Town 1-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.41 xG and Sutton Utd 0.94 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sutton Utd outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Sutton Utd attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 48% | Draw 27% | Sutton Utd 25%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sutton Utd win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Sutton Utd 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.22 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sutton Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.