Crawley Town vs Port Vale – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 18 as Crawley Town welcome Port Vale to The Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 1 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crawley Town's home record at The Broadfield Stadium: 1W 5D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Port Vale — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Port Vale have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Port Vale have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 1.00 PPG, Port Vale 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Crawley Town, 2 for Port Vale and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–4 with Port Vale winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Port Vale in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 46% versus Port Vale 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crawley Town 42% | Port Vale 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.24 xG and Port Vale 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.684 / defence 1.083 | Port Vale attack 0.772 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.109. Crawley Town's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Crawley Town games / 4 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 42% | Draw 32% | Port Vale 26%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Port Vale 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 30% | Port Vale 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Dec 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 42% | Draw 32% | Port Vale 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Crawley Town 1.24 / Port Vale 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.684 / def 1.083 | Port Vale attack 0.772 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Port Vale xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Port Vale kick off?
Crawley Town vs Port Vale is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 December 2026 at The Broadfield Stadium.
Where is Crawley Town vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Port Vale part of?
Crawley Town vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 42% chance of winning, Port Vale a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Crawley Town and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Port Vale?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 2W.
What form are Crawley Town and Port Vale in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Port Vale (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.68x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
42%
2.38
32%
3.16
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.17
0.93
Port Vale xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
8%
13.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.93 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town come into this having played 50 games, going 9W 17D 24L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Port Vale sit at 0.88 PPG from 50 outings (10W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Port Vale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 0.88 PPG, Port Vale on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Crawley Town's home form reads 5W 10D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Port Vale have taken 0.84 points per game from 25 outings (6W 3D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 0.76 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Port Vale
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 9W 17D 24L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 10W 14D 26L in their last 50 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Port Vale away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.00 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Port Vale runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
0
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Port Vale?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Port Vale have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Port Vale 4-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 52%, Port Vale 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Crawley Town) and 48% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 32% of games; Port Vale in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 36% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Crawley Town's recent games and 48% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Port Vale tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.