Crawley Town 2-2 Oldham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Oldham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Oldham travel to The Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town at The Broadfield Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Crawley Town are significantly better at The Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oldham away from home this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 0.90 PPG versus Oldham's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 0, Oldham 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Oldham in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 58% versus Oldham 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 58% | Oldham 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.10 xG and Oldham 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.981 / defence 0.997 | Oldham attack 0.698 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.237. Data: 19 Crawley Town games / 19 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 31% | Oldham 28%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Oldham 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 60% | Oldham 22% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 31% | Oldham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Crawley Town 1.10 / Oldham 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.981 / def 0.997 | Oldham attack 0.698 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Oldham xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Oldham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Oldham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at The Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Crawley Town 2 - 2 Oldham.
Where is Crawley Town vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Oldham part of?
Crawley Town vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 41% chance of winning, Oldham a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Crawley Town and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Oldham?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 2 | Oldham 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Oldham in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Oldham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.98) and Oldham's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oldham's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
41%
2.45
31%
3.20
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
1.97
0.86
Oldham xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.86 for Oldham, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 4W 5D 10L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oldham's form line: 5W 8D 6L from 19 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 0.89 PPG, Oldham on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Oldham have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 0.84 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Oldham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Oldham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 4W 5D 10L in their last 19 games (0.89 PPG), while Oldham have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Oldham away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.33 PPG; Oldham away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Oldham in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Crawley Town's record when hosting Oldham specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
3
Draws
1
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Oldham?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Oldham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Oldham 2-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Oldham?
Oldham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 67%, Oldham 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Crawley Town and 22% for Oldham.
On the defensive side: Oldham in 56%; Oldham in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 22% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Crawley Town's recent games and 22% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Oldham tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Oldham in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Oldham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town and Oldham finished level at 2-2 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.10 xG and Oldham 0.86 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oldham outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Oldham attack 0.70 / defence 0.82, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 41% | Draw 31% | Oldham 28%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 58%, Oldham 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Oldham's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.89 PPG, Oldham 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.