Crawley Town 2-1 Newport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newport County at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Newport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Newport County at Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Newport County have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Newport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newport County's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 0.60 PPG versus Newport County's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 1, Newport County 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Crawley Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Newport County trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 60% versus Newport County 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Newport County 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.01 xG and Newport County 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.990 / defence 1.320 | Newport County attack 1.082 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.035. Data: 58 Crawley Town games / 59 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 26% | Draw 26% | Newport County 48%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Newport County 2.08. Newport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Newport County at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 40% | Newport County 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 26% | Draw 26% | Newport County 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Crawley Town 1.01 / Newport County 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.990 / def 1.320 | Newport County attack 1.082 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Newport County (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Newport County xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Newport County kick off?
Crawley Town vs Newport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Newport County?
Crawley Town 2 - 1 Newport County.
Where is Crawley Town vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Newport County part of?
Crawley Town vs Newport County is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 26% chance of winning, Newport County a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crawley Town and Newport County will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Newport County?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 1 | Newport County 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Newport County in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Newport County (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.99) and Newport County's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newport County's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
26%
3.87
26%
3.82
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.49
1.48
Newport County xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
6%
16.98
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.48 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Newport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 18W 13D 27L from 58 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Newport County, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 23L across 58 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Newport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.16 PPG, Newport County on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 10W 6D 12L from 28 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Newport County's away record stands at 11W 7D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.34 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Newport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Newport County in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 18W 13D 27L in their last 58 games (1.16 PPG), while Newport County have gone 21W 14D 23L in their last 58 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Newport County away?
Newport County's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.29 PPG; Newport County away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Newport County runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2024, when Crawley Town won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Newport County specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Crawley Town
2
Draws
1
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Newport County?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 5, Newport County have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Newport County last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Newport County 0-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Newport County?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Newport County 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Crawley Town) and 46% (Newport County).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 29% of games; Newport County in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Newport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 46% of Newport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Newport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Crawley Town's recent games and 46% of Newport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Newport County tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Newport County in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Newport County 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Newport County 2-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.01 xG and Newport County 1.48 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.99 / defence 1.32 against Newport County attack 1.08 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 26% | Draw 26% | Newport County 48%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Newport County 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Newport County's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.16 PPG, Newport County 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.