Crawley Town 0-2 Hartlepool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Hartlepool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hartlepool make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 9 December 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town at Broadfield Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Hartlepool's overall League Two record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hartlepool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hartlepool have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Crawley Town. A 0.80 PPG lead over Hartlepool (1.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crawley Town lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Hartlepool winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Hartlepool half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 61% versus Hartlepool 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 54% | Hartlepool 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.72 xG and Hartlepool 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.085 / defence 0.978 | Hartlepool attack 0.930 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.087. Hartlepool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Crawley Town games / 66 Hartlepool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 54% | Draw 24% | Hartlepool 21%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Hartlepool 4.76. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 50% | Hartlepool 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Hartlepool | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Dec 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 54% | Draw 24% | Hartlepool 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Crawley Town 1.72 / Hartlepool 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.085 / def 0.978 | Hartlepool attack 0.930 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Hartlepool xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Hartlepool kick off?
Crawley Town vs Hartlepool kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 9 December 2022 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Hartlepool?
Crawley Town 0 - 2 Hartlepool.
Where is Crawley Town vs Hartlepool being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Hartlepool part of?
Crawley Town vs Hartlepool is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Hartlepool?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 54% chance of winning, Hartlepool a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Hartlepool?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Crawley Town and Hartlepool will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Hartlepool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Hartlepool?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Hartlepool 2W.
What form are Crawley Town and Hartlepool in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Hartlepool (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.08x the league average against Hartlepool's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hartlepool's attack (0.93x) against Crawley Town's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.10
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.71
0.99
Hartlepool xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
4%
26.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Hartlepool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Hartlepool expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.99 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Hartlepool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 22W 16D 28L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hartlepool's form line: 16W 18D 32L from 66 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Hartlepool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.00 for Hartlepool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.48 PPG from 33 outings (14W 7D 12L).
On the road, Hartlepool have gone 5W 7D 21L from 33 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Hartlepool are on 0.91 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Hartlepool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Hartlepool in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 22W 16D 28L in their last 66 games (1.24 PPG), while Hartlepool have gone 16W 18D 32L in their last 66 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Hartlepool away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.48 PPG; Hartlepool away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hartlepool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
0
Draws
3
Hartlepool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Hartlepool?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Hartlepool have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Hartlepool last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Hartlepool 0-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Hartlepool?
Hartlepool have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 58%, Hartlepool 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 52% (Hartlepool).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 27% of games; Hartlepool in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Hartlepool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Hartlepool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Crawley Town's games and 54% of Hartlepool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Hartlepool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 52% of Hartlepool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Hartlepool tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hartlepool in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hartlepool cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hartlepool beat Crawley Town 0-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.72 xG and Hartlepool 0.99 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Hartlepool outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against Hartlepool attack 0.93 / defence 1.33, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 54% | Draw 24% | Hartlepool 21%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Hartlepool win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Hartlepool 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hartlepool's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.24 PPG, Hartlepool 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hartlepool win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Hartlepool (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.