Crawley Town 0-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Gillingham at Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 5W 0D 5L at Broadfield Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gillingham's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 0.70 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 62% versus Gillingham 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Gillingham 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.72 xG and Gillingham 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.183 / defence 1.166 | Gillingham attack 0.496 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.054. Gillingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Crawley Town games / 18 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 64% | Draw 23% | Gillingham 13%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.56 | Draw 4.35 | Gillingham 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Crawley Town (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 50% | Gillingham 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 64% | Draw 23% | Gillingham 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 38% | xG Crawley Town 1.72 / Gillingham 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.183 / def 1.166 | Gillingham attack 0.496 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Gillingham xG
38%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Gillingham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Gillingham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 November 2022 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Crawley Town 0 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Crawley Town vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Gillingham part of?
Crawley Town vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 64% chance of winning, Gillingham a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Crawley Town and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Gillingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Gillingham in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Gillingham (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Crawley Town's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
64%
1.56
23%
4.33
13%
7.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.33
0.61
Gillingham xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
7.87
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.67
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
2%
43.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.61 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Gillingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 21W 15D 28L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gillingham's form line: 10W 23D 31L from 64 games, 0.83 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.22 PPG, Gillingham on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.45 PPG from 31 outings (13W 6D 12L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 4W 11D 16L from 31 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.64 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 21W 15D 28L in their last 64 games (1.22 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 10W 23D 31L in their last 64 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Gillingham away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.45 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Gillingham runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crawley Town's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
2
Draws
2
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Gillingham?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Gillingham have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Crawley Town 2-0 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Gillingham 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Crawley Town) and 29% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Gillingham in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 48% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Crawley Town's recent games and 29% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Gillingham tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crawley Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town and Gillingham finished level at 0-0 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.72 xG and Gillingham 0.61 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.18 / defence 1.17 against Gillingham attack 0.50 / defence 1.22, drawn from 64/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 64% | Draw 23% | Gillingham 13%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Gillingham 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gillingham's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.22 PPG, Gillingham 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.