Crawley Town 2-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fleetwood Town make the trip to The Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 4W 2D 4L at The Broadfield Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fleetwood Town's overall League Two record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fleetwood Town's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Crawley Town, 1.50 for Fleetwood Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fleetwood Town half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 50% versus Fleetwood Town 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Fleetwood Town 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.31 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.014 / defence 1.014 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.925 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.180. Data: 14 Crawley Town games / 60 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 31%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Fleetwood Town 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 60% | Fleetwood Town 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Crawley Town 1.31 / Fleetwood Town 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.014 / def 1.014 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.925 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Fleetwood Town xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at The Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Crawley Town 2 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 41% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.01x the league average against Fleetwood Town's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fleetwood Town's attack (0.93x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 14/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.65
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.41
1.11
Fleetwood Town xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.11 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 15W 13D 32L from 60 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fleetwood Town, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 20L across 60 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fleetwood Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fleetwood Town by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 9W 8D 13L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fleetwood Town's away record stands at 10W 5D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.35 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Fleetwood Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 15W 13D 32L in their last 60 games (0.97 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 21W 19D 20L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.17 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Fleetwood Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Fleetwood Town in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
0
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Fleetwood Town have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Fleetwood Town 1-0 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 57%, Fleetwood Town 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Crawley Town) and 57% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Fleetwood Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Crawley Town's games and 53% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Crawley Town's recent games and 57% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Fleetwood Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Fleetwood Town 2-1 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.31 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.11 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 14/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 31%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Fleetwood Town 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fleetwood Town arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Crawley Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.