Crawley Town 0-1 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Crewe travel to The Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Crawley Town haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Crawley Town's home record at The Broadfield Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Crewe haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Crewe have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 1.10 PPG, Crewe 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Crewe, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Crawley Town.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Crewe winning.
It is worth noting that Crewe have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Crewe in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 46% versus Crewe 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 44% | Crewe 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.25 xG and Crewe 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.892 / defence 0.966 | Crewe attack 1.007 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.201. Data: 46 Crawley Town games / 46 Crewe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 38% | Draw 28% | Crewe 34%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Crewe 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 30% | Crewe 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 38% | Draw 28% | Crewe 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Crawley Town 1.25 / Crewe 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.892 / def 0.966 | Crewe attack 1.007 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Crewe xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Crewe kick off?
Crawley Town vs Crewe kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at The Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Crawley Town 0 - 1 Crewe.
Where is Crawley Town vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Crewe part of?
Crawley Town vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 38% chance of winning, Crewe a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crawley Town and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Crewe?
Record (7 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 1 | Crewe 5W.
What form are Crawley Town and Crewe in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.89x the league average against Crewe's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.63
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.41
1.17
Crewe xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.17 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town come into this having played 46 games, going 8W 16D 22L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. Crawley Town haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 1.46 PPG from 46 outings (19W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. Crewe haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Crewe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Crawley Town's home form reads 5W 10D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.39 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 46 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Pre-Season
Crewe
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Crewe in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 8W 16D 22L in their last 46 games (0.87 PPG), while Crewe have gone 19W 10D 17L in their last 46 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Crewe away?
Crewe's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.09 PPG; Crewe away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Crewe runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crewe have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
6
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Crewe?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Crewe have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Crawley Town 0-1 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 56%, Crewe 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Crawley Town) and 48% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Crewe in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Crewe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Crawley Town's games and 56% of Crewe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Crawley Town's recent games and 48% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Crewe tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Crewe in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crewe defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Crawley Town 0-1 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.25 xG and Crewe 1.17 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against Crewe attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 38% | Draw 28% | Crewe 34%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Crewe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 44%, Crewe 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crewe's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.