Colchester 1-1 Rochdale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Colchester take on Rochdale.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rochdale make the trip to JobServe Community Stadium to face Colchester in League Two, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Tuesday 1 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Colchester have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colchester's home record at JobServe Community Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rochdale (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rochdale's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Colchester, 0.90 for Rochdale — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Colchester 0W, Rochdale 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Colchester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Rochdale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 48% versus Rochdale 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 40% | Rochdale 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.07 xG and Rochdale 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.804 / defence 1.189 | Rochdale attack 0.717 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.132. Rochdale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Colchester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Colchester games / 25 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 35% | Draw 36% | Rochdale 29%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Rochdale 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Colchester 60% | Rochdale 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 35% | Draw 36% | Rochdale 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Colchester 1.07 / Rochdale 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.804 / def 1.189 | Rochdale attack 0.717 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Rochdale xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Rochdale kick off?
Colchester vs Rochdale kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 February 2022 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Rochdale?
Colchester 1 - 1 Rochdale.
Where is Colchester vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Rochdale part of?
Colchester vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 35% chance of winning, Rochdale a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Colchester and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Rochdale?
Record (1 meetings): Colchester 0W | Draws 1 | Rochdale 0W.
What form are Colchester and Rochdale in?
Colchester (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Rochdale (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Colchester's attack at 0.80x the league average against Rochdale's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rochdale's attack (0.72x) against Colchester's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.86
36%
2.80
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.04
0.96
Rochdale xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Colchester and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Colchester and 0.96 for Rochdale, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colchester's recent record stands at 6W 7D 12L from 25 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rochdale, meanwhile, have gone 6W 11D 8L across 25 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Colchester against 1.16 for Rochdale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Colchester have managed 3W 4D 5L from 12 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rochdale's away record stands at 3W 5D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Colchester are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.20 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 25 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Blended
Rochdale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 6W 11D 8L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Rochdale away?
Rochdale's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.08 PPG; Rochdale away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colchester have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rochdale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Colchester
2
Draws
1
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Rochdale?
From 4 meetings on record, Colchester have won 1, Rochdale have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2023, when Rochdale 1-2 Colchester.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colchester see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Rochdale see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 58%, Rochdale 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Colchester) and 50% (Rochdale).
On the defensive side: Colchester have failed to score in 33% of games; Rochdale in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Rochdale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Colchester's games and 58% of Rochdale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Colchester vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Colchester's recent games and 50% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Colchester and Rochdale share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester and Rochdale finished level at 1-1 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.07 xG and Rochdale 0.96 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.80 / defence 1.19 against Rochdale attack 0.72 / defence 1.29, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 35% | Draw 36% | Rochdale 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 40%, Rochdale 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Rochdale's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.00 PPG, Rochdale 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.