Colchester 0-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Colchester at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colchester vs Carlisle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carlisle make the trip to JobServe Community Stadium to face Colchester in League Two, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Colchester have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at JobServe Community Stadium, Colchester have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carlisle (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Carlisle have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Colchester's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Colchester 0W, Carlisle 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Carlisle winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Colchester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Carlisle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Colchester 67% and Carlisle 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 51% | Carlisle 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.79 xG and Carlisle 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 1.021 / defence 0.891 | Carlisle attack 0.879 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.219. Carlisle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Colchester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Colchester games / 9 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 57% | Draw 23% | Carlisle 20%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Carlisle 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Colchester (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colchester as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Colchester 60% | Carlisle 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 57% | Draw 23% | Carlisle 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Colchester 1.79 / Carlisle 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 1.021 / def 0.891 | Carlisle attack 0.879 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Colchester (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Carlisle xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Carlisle kick off?
Colchester vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Carlisle?
Colchester 0 - 0 Carlisle.
Where is Colchester vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Carlisle part of?
Colchester vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 57% chance of winning, Carlisle a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Colchester and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Carlisle?
Record (4 meetings): Colchester 0W | Draws 3 | Carlisle 1W.
What form are Colchester and Carlisle in?
Colchester (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Carlisle (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Colchester's attack at 1.02x the league average against Carlisle's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Carlisle's attack (0.88x) against Colchester's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 55/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.33
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.74
0.95
Carlisle xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
3%
30.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Colchester and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Colchester and 0.95 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Carlisle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colchester come into this having played 55 games, going 13W 16D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Carlisle sit at 0.65 PPG from 55 outings (9W 9D 37L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Colchester against 0.65 for Carlisle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Colchester's home form reads 8W 8D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Carlisle have taken 0.67 points per game from 27 outings (5W 3D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colchester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Colchester are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 0.93 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Colchester have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Blended
Carlisle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 13W 16D 26L in their last 55 games (1.00 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 9W 9D 37L in their last 55 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Carlisle away?
Colchester's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.19 PPG; Carlisle away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colchester have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Carlisle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Colchester
5
Draws
1
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Carlisle?
From 6 meetings on record, Colchester have won 0, Carlisle have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Carlisle 0-0 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Carlisle?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 74%, Carlisle 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Colchester) and 48% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Carlisle in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Carlisle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Colchester's games and 48% of Carlisle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Colchester vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Colchester's recent games and 48% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Carlisle tend to score early?
Colchester have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Colchester's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester and Carlisle finished level at 0-0 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.79 xG and Carlisle 0.95 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Colchester fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Carlisle landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against Carlisle attack 0.88 / defence 1.27, drawn from 55/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 57% | Draw 23% | Carlisle 20%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 51%, Carlisle 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Carlisle's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.00 PPG, Carlisle 0.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.