Cambridge United 1-1 Colchester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambridge United at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambridge United vs Colchester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambridge United host Colchester at Abbey Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambridge United stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Abbey Stadium, Cambridge United have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Colchester away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Cambridge United are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cambridge United have won 1, Colchester 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Cambridge United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cambridge United in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Colchester in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 50% versus Colchester 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cambridge United 42% | Colchester 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.43 xG and Colchester 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 1.197 / defence 0.863 | Colchester attack 0.919 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.168. Data: 31 Cambridge United games / 76 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 49% | Draw 27% | Colchester 24%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Colchester 4.17. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambridge United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cambridge United 60% | Colchester 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 49% | Draw 27% | Colchester 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Cambridge United 1.43 / Colchester 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 1.197 / def 0.863 | Colchester attack 0.919 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Colchester xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Colchester kick off?
Cambridge United vs Colchester kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Colchester?
Cambridge United 1 - 1 Colchester.
Where is Cambridge United vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Colchester part of?
Cambridge United vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 49% chance of winning, Colchester a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cambridge United and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Colchester?
Record (1 meetings): Cambridge United 1W | Draws 0 | Colchester 0W.
What form are Cambridge United and Colchester in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Colchester (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cambridge United's attack rating (1.20) and Colchester's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Cambridge United's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.73
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.36
0.93
Colchester xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
6%
17.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cambridge United and 0.93 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambridge United's recent record stands at 26W 19D 31L from 76 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Colchester, meanwhile, have gone 28W 28D 20L across 76 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambridge United on 1.28 PPG, Colchester on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cambridge United have managed 16W 9D 13L from 38 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Colchester's away record stands at 11W 16D 11L across 38 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambridge United are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.25 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Colchester in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Current Season
Colchester
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Colchester in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 26W 19D 31L in their last 76 games (1.28 PPG), while Colchester have gone 28W 28D 20L in their last 76 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Colchester away?
Cambridge United's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.50 PPG; Colchester away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Cambridge United or Colchester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambridge United have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Colchester in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cambridge United
1
Draws
0
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Colchester?
From 2 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 1, Colchester have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Cambridge United 1-1 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Colchester?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 50%, Colchester 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Cambridge United and 32% for Colchester.
On the defensive side: Colchester in 34%; Cambridge United have failed to score in 29% of games; Colchester in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Colchester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 53% of Colchester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cambridge United's recent games and 32% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Colchester tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Colchester in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambridge United and Colchester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Cambridge United and Colchester drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.43 xG and Colchester 0.93 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 1.20 / defence 0.86 against Colchester attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 49% | Draw 27% | Colchester 24%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 42%, Colchester 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Colchester's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.28 PPG, Colchester 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.