Bromley 1-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bromley (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bromley face Cheltenham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cheltenham make the trip to Hayes Lane to face Bromley in League Two, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bromley (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bromley's home record at Hayes Lane: 7W 3D 0L from 10 League Two appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cheltenham's overall League Two record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cheltenham's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Bromley. A 1.40 PPG lead over Cheltenham (2.40 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bromley have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Cheltenham in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Bromley 2W, Cheltenham 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Bromley winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bromley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Cheltenham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bromley 57% versus Cheltenham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bromley 51% | Cheltenham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bromley 2.23 xG and Cheltenham 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bromley attack 1.313 / defence 0.967 | Cheltenham attack 0.860 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.168. Bromley carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Bromley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 77 Bromley games / 76 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bromley 66% | Draw 19% | Cheltenham 15%. Fair-value odds: Bromley 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Cheltenham 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bromley (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bromley as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bromley 80% | Cheltenham 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bromley vs Cheltenham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Hayes Lane • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bromley 66% | Draw 19% | Cheltenham 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 55% | xG Bromley 2.23 / Cheltenham 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bromley attack 1.313 / def 0.967 | Cheltenham attack 0.860 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Bromley (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Bromley xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cheltenham xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bromley vs Cheltenham kick off?
Bromley vs Cheltenham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Hayes Lane.
What was the final score in Bromley vs Cheltenham?
Bromley 1 - 1 Cheltenham.
Where is Bromley vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Hayes Lane.
What competition is Bromley vs Cheltenham part of?
Bromley vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bromley vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Bromley a 66% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bromley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bromley vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bromley and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Bromley vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bromley and Cheltenham?
Record (3 meetings): Bromley 2W | Draws 1 | Cheltenham 0W.
What form are Bromley and Cheltenham in?
Bromley (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Cheltenham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bromley's attack rating (1.31) and Cheltenham's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (0.86x) against Bromley's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 77/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bromley Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.26
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Bromley xG
Total xG
3.20
0.97
Cheltenham xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
11%
9.27
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
2%
61.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bromley vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Bromley and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Bromley and 0.97 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Bromley vs Cheltenham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Bromley have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 34W 24D 18L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Cheltenham's form line: 25W 16D 35L from 76 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Bromley are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cheltenham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bromley have posted 1.76 PPG from 38 outings (18W 13D 7L).
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 9W 9D 20L from 38 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bromley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bromley are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.17 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 76 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bromley
Current Season
Cheltenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bromley and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Bromley have gone 34W 24D 18L in their last 76 games (1.66 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 25W 16D 35L in their last 76 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bromley at home or Cheltenham away?
Bromley's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bromley at home: 1.76 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Bromley or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bromley have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bromley won 3-0 on 3 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bromley have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cheltenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bromley
2
Draws
0
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bromley and Cheltenham?
From 4 meetings on record, Bromley have won 2, Cheltenham have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bromley and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Bromley 1-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Bromley and Cheltenham?
Bromley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bromley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bromley 60%, Cheltenham 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bromley) and 58% (Cheltenham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bromley keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cheltenham in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bromley home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bromley play Cheltenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bromley's games and 55% of Cheltenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bromley vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Bromley's matches and 58% of Cheltenham's.
Do Bromley and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Bromley have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bromley and Cheltenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hayes Lane, Regular Season - 33, as Bromley and Cheltenham drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bromley 2.23 xG and Cheltenham 0.97 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bromley fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bromley attack 1.31 / defence 0.97 against Cheltenham attack 0.86 / defence 1.33, drawn from 77/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bromley 66% | Draw 19% | Cheltenham 15%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bromley 51%, Cheltenham 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bromley's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cheltenham's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bromley arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cheltenham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.