Bradford 0-2 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Mansfield Town travel to The Utilita Energy Stadium to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Bradford have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bradford at The Utilita Energy Stadium this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mansfield Town — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League Two this season, Mansfield Town have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mansfield Town are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bradford have won 1, Mansfield Town 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with Bradford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bradford trading profile (30 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Mansfield Town trading profile (30 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bradford 63% and Mansfield Town 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 40% | Mansfield Town 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 0.89 xG and Mansfield Town 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.904 / defence 1.310 | Mansfield Town attack 0.743 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.127. Data: 33 Bradford games / 30 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 27% | Draw 35% | Mansfield Town 38%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Mansfield Town 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Bradford 80% | Mansfield Town 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: The Utilita Energy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 27% | Draw 35% | Mansfield Town 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Bradford 0.89 / Mansfield Town 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.904 / def 1.310 | Mansfield Town attack 0.743 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Mansfield Town xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Bradford vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Bradford 0 - 2 Mansfield Town.
Where is Bradford vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Mansfield Town part of?
Bradford vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 27% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bradford and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
Record (1 meetings): Bradford 1W | Draws 0 | Mansfield Town 0W.
What form are Bradford and Mansfield Town in?
Bradford (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Mansfield Town (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.90x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
27%
3.71
35%
2.84
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Bradford xG
Total xG
1.99
1.10
Mansfield Town xG
3.71
27%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 15.0 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Bradford and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Bradford and 1.10 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bradford come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 12D 11L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (14W 8D 8L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five.
Mansfield Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Bradford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bradford's home form reads 2W 7D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mansfield Town's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.33 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Mansfield Town in 60%.
Last 30 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 7W 12D 11L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 14W 8D 8L in their last 30 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.00 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Mansfield Town won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bradford's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bradford
3
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, Mansfield Town have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Bradford 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Mansfield Town see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bradford at 77%, Mansfield Town at 54%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bradford) and 38% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Bradford's games and 54% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bradford's recent games and 38% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mansfield Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bradford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Bradford 0-2 at The Utilita Energy Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 0.89 xG and Mansfield Town 1.10 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bradford fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Mansfield Town outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.90 / defence 1.31 against Mansfield Town attack 0.74 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 27% | Draw 35% | Mansfield Town 38%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 40%, Mansfield Town 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (30 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (30 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.