Bradford 2-1 Chesterfield – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bradford face Chesterfield.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
University of Bradford Stadium plays host to Bradford versus Chesterfield in League Two (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Bradford (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Bradford have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bradford are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Chesterfield's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Chesterfield away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Bradford, 1.60 for Chesterfield — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Chesterfield goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 73% versus Chesterfield 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 54% | Chesterfield 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.64 xG and Chesterfield 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.083 / defence 0.922 | Chesterfield attack 1.107 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.162. Data: built from Bradford's last 67 games and Chesterfield's last 22.
Result probabilities: Bradford 47% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 27%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.13 | Draw 3.81 | Chesterfield 3.74. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bradford at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bradford 70% (last 10 home games) | Chesterfield 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Chesterfield | Competition: League Two, matchday 23 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 47% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Bradford 1.64 / Chesterfield 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.083 / def 0.922 | Chesterfield attack 1.107 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Bradford (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Chesterfield xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bradford vs Chesterfield FAQs
What time does Bradford vs Chesterfield kick off?
Bradford vs Chesterfield kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 29 December 2024 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Chesterfield?
Bradford 2 - 1 Chesterfield.
Where is Bradford vs Chesterfield being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Chesterfield part of?
Bradford vs Chesterfield is a League Two fixture (matchday 23) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Chesterfield?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 47% chance of winning, Chesterfield a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Chesterfield?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bradford and Chesterfield will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bradford vs Chesterfield have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bradford's attack at 1.08x the league average against Chesterfield's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chesterfield's attack (1.11x) against Bradford's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Bradford's last 67 games and Chesterfield's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.81
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.82
1.19
Chesterfield xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
5%
19.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bradford vs Chesterfield Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Chesterfield?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bradford and Chesterfield expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Bradford and 1.19 for Chesterfield, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Chesterfield?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bradford come into this having played 22 games, going 9W 7D 6L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Chesterfield sit at 1.55 PPG from 22 outings (9W 7D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Bradford against 1.55 for Chesterfield. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bradford's home form reads 7W 3D 1L across their last 11 home games, a 2.18 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Bradford are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chesterfield have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 11 away games (5W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bradford are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Chesterfield are on 1.64 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Chesterfield
Blended
Bradford (Home) vs Chesterfield (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bradford
Blended
Chesterfield
Blended
❓ Bradford vs Chesterfield Form FAQs
What form are Bradford and Chesterfield in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 9W 7D 6L in their last 22 games (1.55 PPG), while Chesterfield have gone 9W 7D 6L in their last 22 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Chesterfield away?
Bradford's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.18 PPG; Chesterfield away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Bradford or Chesterfield been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Chesterfield in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Bradford and Chesterfield, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bradford
1
Draws
0
Chesterfield
Recent Meetings
❓ Bradford vs Chesterfield H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Chesterfield?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Bradford have won 1, Chesterfield have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bradford and Chesterfield last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2025: Chesterfield 3-3 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Chesterfield?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 73%, Chesterfield 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Bradford and 64% for Chesterfield. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chesterfield in 36%; Chesterfield in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Chesterfield away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bradford vs Chesterfield Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bradford and Chesterfield matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Bradford's recent matches and 27% of Chesterfield's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bradford and Chesterfield matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Bradford's matches and 64% of Chesterfield's.
Do Bradford and Chesterfield matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Bradford's recent matches and 91% of Chesterfield's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Chesterfield 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Chesterfield 2-1 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.64 xG and Chesterfield 1.19 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Chesterfield attack 1.11 / defence 1.15, drawn from 67/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 47% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 27%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 54%, Chesterfield 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Chesterfield's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.55 PPG, Chesterfield 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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