Bradford 2-2 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Wimbledon make the trip to University of Bradford Stadium to face Bradford in League Two, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bradford have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's home record at University of Bradford Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bradford Stadium.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Bradford's favour (2.00 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 56% versus AFC Wimbledon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 46% | AFC Wimbledon 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.70 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.103 / defence 0.756 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.878 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.006. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Bradford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bradford's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Bradford games / 9 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 62% | Draw 23% | AFC Wimbledon 14%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | AFC Wimbledon 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bradford (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bradford 40% | AFC Wimbledon 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 62% | Draw 23% | AFC Wimbledon 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 40% | xG Bradford 1.70 / AFC Wimbledon 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.103 / def 0.756 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.878 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Bradford (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.67
AFC Wimbledon xG
40%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 September 2022 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Bradford 2 - 2 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 62% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bradford and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bradford and AFC Wimbledon in?
Bradford (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bradford's attack at 1.10x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.88x) against Bradford's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 55/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
62%
1.60
23%
4.27
14%
7.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.37
0.67
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
7.01
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
3%
38.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bradford and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Bradford and 0.67 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 19W 18D 18L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 8W 21D 26L from 55 games, 0.82 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AFC Wimbledon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (9W 12D 7L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 5W 6D 17L from 28 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bradford are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.05 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 19W 18D 18L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 8W 21D 26L in their last 55 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Bradford's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.39 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bradford
4
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and AFC Wimbledon?
From 8 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 3-1 Bradford.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 64%, AFC Wimbledon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bradford) and 54% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play AFC Wimbledon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bradford's games and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bradford's recent games and 54% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford and AFC Wimbledon share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford and AFC Wimbledon finished level at 2-2 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.70 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.67 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.10 / defence 0.76 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.88 / defence 1.26, drawn from 55/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 62% | Draw 23% | AFC Wimbledon 14%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 46%, AFC Wimbledon 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bradford (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.