Barrow 1-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Barrow take on Walsall.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Barrow host Walsall at The Dunes Hotel Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Barrow — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at The Dunes Hotel Stadium, Barrow have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Walsall stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Walsall have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Barrow at 0.90 PPG versus Walsall's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Barrow, 0 for Walsall and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Barrow in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Walsall in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Barrow 48% versus Walsall 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Barrow 36% | Walsall 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barrow 0.89 xG and Walsall 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barrow attack 0.654 / defence 1.152 | Walsall attack 0.622 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.114. Barrow's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Walsall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Barrow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Barrow games / 34 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Barrow 33% | Draw 39% | Walsall 28%. Fair-value odds: Barrow 3.03 | Draw 2.56 | Walsall 3.57. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Walsall's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.69 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Barrow 40% | Walsall 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barrow vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: The Dunes Hotel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barrow 33% | Draw 39% | Walsall 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 35% | xG Barrow 0.89 / Walsall 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Barrow attack 0.654 / def 1.152 | Walsall attack 0.622 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Barrow xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Walsall xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Barrow vs Walsall kick off?
Barrow vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at The Dunes Hotel Stadium.
What was the final score in Barrow vs Walsall?
Barrow 1 - 1 Walsall.
Where is Barrow vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at The Dunes Hotel Stadium.
What competition is Barrow vs Walsall part of?
Barrow vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Barrow vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Barrow a 33% chance of winning, Walsall a 28% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Barrow vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Barrow and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Barrow vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Walsall?
Record (1 meetings): Barrow 0W | Draws 1 | Walsall 0W.
What form are Barrow and Walsall in?
Barrow (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Walsall (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Barrow's attack rating (0.65) and Walsall's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Barrow's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
39%
2.58
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Barrow xG
Total xG
1.69
0.80
Walsall xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 14.7 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Barrow vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Barrow and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Barrow and 0.80 for Walsall, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Barrow vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Barrow come into this having played 33 games, going 7W 11D 15L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Walsall sit at 1.18 PPG from 33 outings (10W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Barrow on 0.97 PPG, Walsall on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Barrow's home form reads 2W 8D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Walsall have taken 1.00 points per game from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Barrow are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.09 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 33 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barrow
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Barrow and Walsall in coming into this match?
Barrow have gone 7W 11D 15L in their last 33 games (0.97 PPG), while Walsall have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Barrow at home or Walsall away?
Walsall's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Barrow at home: 0.88 PPG; Walsall away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Barrow or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Barrow have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Walsall in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Barrow's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Barrow
3
Draws
2
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Walsall?
From 10 meetings on record, Barrow have won 5, Walsall have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Barrow and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Barrow 1-3 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Barrow and Walsall?
Barrow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Barrow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Barrow 56%, Walsall 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Barrow and 31% for Walsall.
On the defensive side: Barrow keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Barrow have failed to score in 38% of games; Walsall in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barrow home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Barrow play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Barrow's recent matches and 38% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Barrow vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Barrow's recent games and 31% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Barrow and Walsall tend to score early?
Barrow have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Walsall in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Barrow and Walsall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barrow and Walsall finished level at 1-1 at The Dunes Hotel Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 0.89 xG and Walsall 0.80 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.65 / defence 1.15 against Walsall attack 0.62 / defence 1.34, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barrow 33% | Draw 39% | Walsall 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 36%, Walsall 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barrow's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Walsall's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Barrow 0.97 PPG, Walsall 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.