Barrow 1-1 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Barrow at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Barrow vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Notts County travel to SO Legal Stadium to take on Barrow. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 22 October 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Barrow stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Barrow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Barrow have posted 5W 2D 3L at SO Legal Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Notts County — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Notts County have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Barrow 1.60 PPG, Notts County 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Barrow, 0 for Notts County and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Barrow in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Notts County in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Barrow 52% versus Notts County 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Barrow 40% | Notts County 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barrow 1.33 xG and Notts County 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barrow attack 1.025 / defence 0.757 | Notts County attack 1.168 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.245. Barrow's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Barrow games / 58 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Barrow 42% | Draw 27% | Notts County 31%. Fair-value odds: Barrow 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Notts County 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Barrow as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Barrow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Barrow 50% | Notts County 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barrow vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: SO Legal Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barrow 42% | Draw 27% | Notts County 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Barrow 1.33 / Notts County 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Barrow attack 1.025 / def 0.757 | Notts County attack 1.168 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Barrow (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Barrow xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Notts County xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Barrow vs Notts County kick off?
Barrow vs Notts County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at SO Legal Stadium.
What was the final score in Barrow vs Notts County?
Barrow 1 - 1 Notts County.
Where is Barrow vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at SO Legal Stadium.
What competition is Barrow vs Notts County part of?
Barrow vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Barrow vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Barrow a 42% chance of winning, Notts County a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Barrow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Barrow vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Barrow and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Barrow vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Notts County?
Record (2 meetings): Barrow 0W | Draws 2 | Notts County 0W.
What form are Barrow and Notts County in?
Barrow (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Notts County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Barrow vs Notts County?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Barrow's attack rating (1.02) and Notts County's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Barrow's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barrow Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.67
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Barrow xG
Total xG
2.43
1.10
Notts County xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
8%
12.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Barrow vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Barrow and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Barrow and 1.10 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Barrow vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Barrow's recent record stands at 24W 16D 18L from 58 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Barrow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 23L across 58 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Barrow on 1.52 PPG, Notts County on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Barrow have managed 15W 9D 5L from 29 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Notts County's away record stands at 9W 8D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barrow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Barrow are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.88 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County in 66%.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barrow
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Barrow and Notts County in coming into this match?
Barrow have gone 24W 16D 18L in their last 58 games (1.52 PPG), while Notts County have gone 24W 11D 23L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Barrow at home or Notts County away?
Barrow's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Barrow at home: 1.86 PPG; Notts County away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Barrow or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Barrow have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Notts County in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Barrow and Notts County runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Barrow's record when hosting Notts County specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Barrow
3
Draws
1
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Notts County?
From 6 meetings on record, Barrow have won 2, Notts County have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Barrow and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Notts County 2-1 Barrow.
Who has won more matches between Barrow and Notts County?
Barrow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Barrow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Barrow 45%, Notts County 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Barrow) and 62% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Barrow keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barrow home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Barrow play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Barrow's games and 69% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Barrow vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Barrow's recent games and 62% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Barrow and Notts County tend to score early?
Barrow have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Notts County in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Barrow and Notts County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barrow and Notts County finished level at 1-1 at SO Legal Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.33 xG and Notts County 1.10 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 1.02 / defence 0.76 against Notts County attack 1.17 / defence 0.97, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barrow 42% | Draw 27% | Notts County 31%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 40%, Notts County 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barrow's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Notts County's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Barrow 1.52 PPG, Notts County 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.