Barrow 1-3 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Barrow at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Barrow and AFC Wimbledon meet at SO Legal Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Barrow's overall League Two record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Barrow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Barrow's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at SO Legal Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AFC Wimbledon have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Barrow against 1.60 for AFC Wimbledon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Barrow lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Barrow half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Barrow 52% versus AFC Wimbledon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Barrow 36% | AFC Wimbledon 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barrow 1.26 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barrow attack 0.985 / defence 0.787 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.735 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.251. Barrow's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Barrow games / 58 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Barrow 49% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 21%. Fair-value odds: Barrow 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | AFC Wimbledon 4.76. Barrow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Barrow are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Barrow if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Barrow 60% | AFC Wimbledon 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: SO Legal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barrow 49% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Barrow 1.26 / AFC Wimbledon 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Barrow attack 0.985 / def 0.787 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.735 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Barrow (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Barrow xG
Expected Goals
0.72
AFC Wimbledon xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 November 2024 at SO Legal Stadium.
What was the final score in Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon?
Barrow 1 - 3 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at SO Legal Stadium.
What competition is Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Barrow a 49% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Barrow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Barrow and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (4 meetings): Barrow 2W | Draws 1 | AFC Wimbledon 1W.
What form are Barrow and AFC Wimbledon in?
Barrow (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Barrow's attack rating (0.98) and AFC Wimbledon's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.73x) against Barrow's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 61/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barrow Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.39
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Barrow xG
Total xG
1.98
0.72
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
6%
16.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Barrow and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Barrow and 0.72 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Barrow come into this having played 58 games, going 22W 18D 18L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Barrow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.45 PPG from 58 outings (23W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Barrow against 1.45 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Barrow's home form reads 14W 10D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.03 points per game from 29 outings (7W 9D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Wimbledon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barrow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Barrow are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.41 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barrow
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Barrow and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Barrow have gone 22W 18D 18L in their last 58 games (1.45 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 23W 15D 20L in their last 58 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Barrow at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Barrow's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Barrow at home: 1.79 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Barrow or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Barrow have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Barrow have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Barrow
2
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and AFC Wimbledon?
From 6 meetings on record, Barrow have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Barrow and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 2-2 Barrow.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Barrow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Barrow 45%, AFC Wimbledon 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Barrow and 31% for AFC Wimbledon.
On the defensive side: Barrow keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 38%; AFC Wimbledon in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barrow home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Barrow play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Barrow's recent matches and 34% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Barrow vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Barrow's recent games and 31% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Barrow and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Barrow have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 41% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Wimbledon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Barrow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Barrow 1-3 at SO Legal Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.26 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.72 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.98 / defence 0.79 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 61/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barrow 49% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 21%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a AFC Wimbledon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 36%, AFC Wimbledon 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barrow's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Barrow 1.45 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.