Accrington ST 1-3 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stockport County at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wham Stadium plays host to Accrington ST versus Stockport County in League Two, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Accrington ST's overall League Two record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Wham Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stockport County (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Accrington ST, 1.50 for Stockport County — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stockport County in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 44% versus Stockport County 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 51% | Stockport County 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.62 xG and Stockport County 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.057 / defence 1.098 | Stockport County attack 1.190 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.266. Data: 9 Accrington ST games / 55 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 37% | Draw 24% | Stockport County 39%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Stockport County 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 60% | Stockport County 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 37% | Draw 24% | Stockport County 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Accrington ST 1.62 / Stockport County 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.057 / def 1.098 | Stockport County attack 1.190 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Stockport County xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Stockport County kick off?
Accrington ST vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Stockport County?
Accrington ST 1 - 3 Stockport County.
Where is Accrington ST vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Stockport County part of?
Accrington ST vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 37% chance of winning, Stockport County a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Accrington ST and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Accrington ST and Stockport County in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Stockport County (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Accrington ST's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (1.19x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 9/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
37%
2.68
24%
4.18
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.27
1.65
Stockport County xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
7%
14.01
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.65 for Stockport County, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Accrington ST come into this having played 55 games, going 15W 12D 28L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stockport County sit at 1.71 PPG from 55 outings (26W 16D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Accrington ST's home form reads 9W 6D 13L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Stockport County have taken 1.57 points per game from 28 outings (13W 5D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Accrington ST are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.47 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 15W 12D 28L in their last 55 games (1.04 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 26W 16D 13L in their last 55 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.18 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stockport County in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
0
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Stockport County?
From 2 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Stockport County have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Stockport County 4-2 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 50%, Stockport County 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Accrington ST) and 50% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Stockport County in 32%; Accrington ST have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 54% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Accrington ST's recent games and 50% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Stockport County tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Accrington ST 1-3 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.62 xG and Stockport County 1.65 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.06 / defence 1.10 against Stockport County attack 1.19 / defence 1.00, drawn from 9/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 37% | Draw 24% | Stockport County 39%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 51%, Stockport County 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.